Poles are becoming more and more stable in their political moods. The introduction of the Third Way into the game confused us a bit. However, we are in the same polarized situation as we were four or eight years ago – said political scientist prof. in “Rozmowa Piaseckiego” on TVN24. Marek Migalski. In his opinion, who will ultimately form the government is a matter of “subtlety”, although he gives the opposition a better chance.
– It seems that the situation is relatively stable at the moment. It means that PIS he will get about 35 (percentage of support – editor), maybe a little more. Civic Coalition 30, maybe a little more. Later, we have three committees with a share of approximately 10 percent – said Marek Migalski in “Rozmowa Piaseckiego”. He added that Non-partisan Local Government “will probably not exceed either the funding threshold or the threshold of entering parliament.” Subsidies from the state budget are received by the party that won elections to the Sejm at least 3 percent votes. In the case of electoral coalitions, this threshold is 6%.
The political scientist emphasized that who will ultimately form the government is a matter of “subtlety”. – Will the difference between the coalition and PiS be 5 percentage points or 7 percentage points, will Third Droga be 8.1 or 7.9 – he explained.
In his opinion, if PiS does not exceed 40 percent, it looks like the opposition will rule. – If the distance between the first two (ed. parties) is small, then D’Hondt (the system of converting votes into seats used in Poland – ed.) begins to work to the advantage of both of these parties, of course to a greater extent in favor of the first one. And (if – ed.) the remaining two committees of the democratic opposition actually pass the thresholds and so reliably, it looks like it should get to 231 – said the political scientist, referring to the opposition’s chances of gaining a majority in the Sejm of 231 seats.
Migalski: we overestimate the role of the election campaign
When asked about his assessment of this year’s election campaign, Marek Migalski said that we overestimate its role. – The campaign specialists are convinced and trying to convince them of the importance of the campaign, because they want to act for these magicians and miracle workers. However, the fact is that politicians do not create waves, they surf them, he said. He stressed that this does not mean that the campaign has no significance. – However, we overestimate its importance – he said.
According to the political scientist, Poles are “more and more stable” in their political moods. – The introduction of the Third Way into the game confused us a bit. However, we are in the same polarized situation as we were four or eight years ago, he argued. He pointed out that the total support for PiS and the Civic Coalition is approximately 70 percent, which is exactly the same as in last year’s elections.
– There are one or two things that work to PiS’s advantage, and one or two things that work to the opposition’s advantage, Migalski said. As he explained, the referendum campaign works to PiS’s advantage. – We will see how people will react to this connection, this trick that PiS used, whether it will work or not – he said.
He added that “on the other side, we see that probably the majority of the electorate who is hesitating is hesitating between who to support as part of the democratic opposition.” He drew attention to the “wave of interest in the elections.” – We can assume that these are probably opposition voters. That they are angry and do not want to miss the opportunity to remove PiS from power. So here is the opportunity for the opposition, said the political scientist.
Main photo source: TVN24