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Poland’s GDP – forecasts for 2023

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We forecast that in the fourth quarter of 2022, GDP fell to 2.2 percent, said PKO BP economist Urszula Kryńska. The beginning of the year will be the worst in terms of economic activity, a certain recovery will be possible at the end of 2023, she assessed. She added that inflation jumped to 18.7 percent in January.

In the coming week, the Central Statistical Office will publish a flash estimate of GDP growth in Q4 2022 – it will do so on Tuesday.

– Based on annual data, we believe that the GDP growth rate in Q4 2022 fell to 2.2 percent. Urszula Kryńska, an economist at the PKO BP bank, told PAP.

Another quarter with a decline

This means that Q4 2022 was another time when the GDP growth rate in Poland was declining. In Q3, the GDP growth rate was 3.6 percent, and in Q2 it was 5.8 percent. According to Urszula Kryńska, the reduced economic activity will carry over to almost the whole of 2023.

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– In terms of economic activity, the whole year will be weak. We expect that the beginning of the year will be the worst in this respect, and a certain reconstruction will be possible only at the end of 2023, said the PKO BP economist.

In the coming week – but on Wednesday – the Central Statistical Office will also publish preliminary inflation data for January. In December, the price increase index amounted to 16.6 percent.

– We expect inflation at the level of 18.7 percent, although I admit that this can be considered the upper limit of the estimate, because we do not know exactly how energy prices will be included in the CSO data – said Urszula Kryńska.

She explained that among the factors that caused this increase in inflation, there are primarily administrative price changes, an increase in the prices of energy carriers and an increase in VAT, resulting from the end of anti-inflation shields, as well as higher dynamics of fuel prices than at the same time a year ago. In addition, many companies decide to change their price lists at the beginning of the year, she added.

– Inflation may be even higher in February, which will result from i.a. from the base effect, as anti-inflation shields were introduced in the food and fuel sections a year earlier. However, the following months should show a decline in inflation – said the PKO BP economist.

Main photo source: Grand Warsaw / Shutterstock.com

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