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Poland’s GDP – fourth quarter 2022. Data from the Central Statistical Office. Slowing down the Polish economy

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Poland’s gross domestic product (GDP) in the fourth quarter of 2022 increased by 2.0 percent year-on-year. On a quarterly basis, the economy shrank by 2.4 percent, according to preliminary data from the Central Statistical Office, which was announced on Tuesday. For comparison, in the third quarter of 2022, the Polish economy grew by 3.6 percent year on year.

The market consensus, i.e. the median of analysts’ forecasts, assumed an increase of 2.2 percent. year-on-year, down 0.4%. quarter to quarter. The Central Statistical Office noted that “the data is preliminary and may be subject to revision, in accordance with the revision policy applied in quarterly national accounts, at the time of developing the first regular estimate of GDP for the fourth quarter of 2022, which will be published on February 28, 2023.” .

Earlier, the Central Statistical Office reported preliminary data on GDP growth throughout 2022. The estimation shows that the Polish economy grew by 4.9% last year. According to the latest forecasts of the European Commission, the growth of our economy in 2023 will slow down to 0.4 percent.

More information coming soon.

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Poland’s GDP in the fourth quarter of 2022 – comments

Economists from ING Bank Śląski wrote about further cooling of the economic situation. “According to flash estimates, in 4Q22 GDP fell by 2.4% q/q (after seasonal adjustment). The annual growth rate decreased to 2.0% from 3.6% y/y in 3Q22” – they pointed out. “In 2023, we expect economic growth of 1 percent, after 4.9 percent in 2022,” the economists added.

The Polish Economic Institute wrote that GDP growth slowed to 2.0 percent in the fourth quarter. “Rise interest rates reduced consumer spending. Slowdown in euro area it means weaker results of the Polish industry. Investment prospects are better – growth energy prices encourages companies to invest in energy efficiency.

According to PIE, in the first quarter of this year “We’re facing a downturn.” “The Polish economy has a chance to avoid recession – we estimate that growth will slow down to 0.4 percent. Currently, we are seeing an improvement in sentiment in European economies. The PMI index rebounded Germany from 45.1 to 47.3, and in Poland from 42.0 to 47.5 points.

In the opinion of analysts, “in the further part of the year GDP will rebound systematically”. “We expect that in 2023 it will increase by approx. 1.4 percent in total. Our forecast is slightly higher than the market consensus – economists surveyed by Focus Economics expect an increase of 0.9 percent.” – we read in the entry.

Main photo source: tvn24.pl

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