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Poland’s GDP, inflation. Jerzy Hausner on the threat to the Polish economy

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We are dealing with a threat of economic stagnation – said Professor Jerzy Hausner, former Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Economy, in “Fakty po Faktach” on TVN24. The former member of the Monetary Policy Council also drew attention to the negative results of industrial production. Hausner also does not share the optimism regarding the slowdown in price growth in the coming months.

Professor Jerzy Hausner was asked in “Fakty po Faktach” on TVN24 about the condition of the Polish economy, whether it is very bad. – No, I never use such catastrophic terms, because they serve no purpose and do not help anyone. However, we are dealing with a threat of economic stagnation – said the former deputy prime minister.

The former Minister of Economy pointed out that Poland needs “economic growth dynamics above 3 percent annually, because it corresponds to our economic potential and to achieve such a growth rate in the long term.” – It’s not about one or even two years, but the perspective of 5-10 years, but through high management efficiency and productivity using one’s own potential. In my opinion, this is the key to the future success of the Polish economy, which now finds itself in a situation that I now call stagnation, emphasized Hausner.

The former Minister of Economy drew attention to the situation in Polish industry. – In the case of industry, we have had negative results since February, i.e. the industry produces less month by month (…), and this is 20 percent of the Polish economic potential, so here we are dealing with a recession and in this sense the problem with the dynamics of economic activity is a serious problem – said the guest of “Fakty po Faktach” on TVN24.

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The Central Statistical Office will publish industrial production data for October on Tuesday. In September 2023, it fell by 3.1%. Every year.


Inflation in Poland

Jerzy Hausner was also asked about optimistic forecasts regarding inflation, which was talked about in “Fakty po Faktach” by member of the Monetary Policy Council, professor Ireneusz Dąbrowski. Dąbrowski pointed out that “2024 will be the year of approaching the inflation target.” – I think that the goal will be achieved before the end of next year – said the MPC member. Let us recall that the NBP inflation target is 2.5%. +/- 1 percentage point.

Hausner does not share this optimism. – I do not share this, but I base it on the forecasts presented by the National Bank of Poland – he explained. As the former deputy prime minister pointed out, “at the National Bank of Poland there is a group of analysts, economists and professionals who prepared economic forecasts for subsequent presidents, management boards and Monetary Policy Councils.”

– These people know this and the forecasts, which are official forecasts announced by the National Bank of Poland, show that we will achieve this goal only in 2025. Therefore, I do not share this optimism, although I would, of course, like it to be so – noted Jerzy Hausner.

According to data from the Central Statistical Office the consumer price index (CPI) in October was 6.6 percent. Every year.

PAP/Maciej Zieliński

Main photo source: TVN24

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