Poland's GDP. OECD economists' forecasts

“Inflation should return to target, but the expected withdrawal of the 'energy shields' at the end of next year will slow its decline. Inflation is expected to average around 5%. in 2025 and will drop to 3.9%. in 2026 Significant spare capacity should reduce labor shortages, moderate wage growth and lead to a decline in core inflation,” the report said.

“Private consumption should grow, supported by an increase in real wages and gradual reductions in interest rates. After a slowdown in investment growth this year, the disbursement of EU funds will accelerate investment growth in 2025. GDP is expected to grow by 3.4% next year and by 3% in 2026,” it added.

Among the risks to forecasts, OECD economists indicate, among others: to difficulties in absorbing EU funds, strong wage growth and war in Ukraine.

“Faster than expected absorption of EU funds may increase investments, but short time frames and labor shortages may make it difficult to implement them. Continued high wage growth may increase consumption even more and lead to a stronger increase in inflation. Escalation of the war in Ukraine or extension of the conflict may result in increase in inflation and decline in economic growth,” it was written.

The OECD forecasts that in 2025 the deficit of the Polish GG sector will be similar to this year's and will amount to 5.8%. GDP. The authors of the report forecast that by the end of 2026 the NBP reference rate will be reduced to 4%.

“The fiscal deficit will worsen to 5.8% of GDP this year and is expected to be similar in 2025. Medium-term fiscal plans, however, envisage consolidation at around 1% of GDP per year in 2026-28 thanks to a combination of higher revenues from income tax and excise duty and lower expenses in real terms, as well as the withdrawal of the 'energy shields',” the report wrote.

“The central bank has kept interest rates at 5.75% this year, taking into account the strength of the domestic economy and concerns about persistent inflation. It is assumed that monetary policy will remain restrictive, but will be slowly eased from mid-2025, and interest rates will be reduced to 4%. until the end of 2026, as inflationary pressures subside – added.

OECD economists indicate that due to the uncertainty regarding inflation monetary policy should remain restrictive. As they point out, stronger fiscal consolidation from 2026 will have a negative impact on economic growth.

“Given the uncertainty over the pace of disinflation, monetary policy should remain restrictive and ease as inflation returns sustainably to the target. The planned fiscal consolidation envisages an ambitious pace of fiscal adjustment from 2026, which will significantly reduce the deficit by 2028, but will negative impact on economic growth. The so-called energy shields should be fully withdrawn next year and social benefits should be more targeted“- it was written in the report.

“Environmental and property taxes should be increasedthe former should also help accelerate the green transformation. Policies to address skills and labor shortages, such as adult training and lifelong learning programmes, raising the retirement age and implementing a targeted migration strategy, could strengthen economic growth,” it added.