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Poland’s GDP – Q1 2023. The latest data from the Central Statistical Office – preliminary estimate

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The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of Poland decreased in the first quarter of 2023 by 0.3 percent compared to the same period of the previous year, according to the preliminary estimates of the Central Statistical Office (GUS).

Two weeks earlier GUS reported in a quick estimateGDP fell by 0.2% in the first quarter. Every year.

Poland’s GDP – Q1 2023PAP

Poland’s GDP – Q1 2023

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WITH data from the Central Statistical Office shows that investments in the first quarter increased by 5.5 percent. yoy, private consumption fell by 2 percent, while domestic demand fell by 5.2 percent. y/y The consensus conducted by PAP Biznes shows that the market expected an increase in investments by 3.1 percent. yoy, a decline in private consumption by 2.6 percent. yoy and a decline in domestic demand by 2.4 percent. y/y

In terms of kdk GDP increased by 3.8 percent. against 3.9 percent in flash respect.

As explained by the Central Statistical Office in the release, the decline in GDP by 0.3 percent. on an annual basis, “this was influenced by a decrease in domestic demand by 5.2 percent (in 4Q 2022, an increase in domestic demand by 0.6 percent was recorded)”.

This was due to a decrease in gross capital formation by 18.4% (against an increase in Q4 2022 by 10.4%) and a decrease in total consumption by 1.6% (against a decrease in Q4 2022 by 3.3 per cent. Consumption in the household sector decreased by 2.0 per cent (compared to a decrease of 1.1 per cent in Q4 2022). fixed assets increased by 5.5 percent. (against an increase in the 4th quarter of 2022 by 5.4 percent), the Office said.

Polish economy in the first quarter of 2023 – comments

However, GDP in Q1 shrank by 0.3% and not 0.2% y/y, but it does not change much. Weak result of private consumption (-2% y/y), good investment (+5.5% y/y) /y), the contribution of net exports in space (+4.3 percentage points) is a mirror of the negative contribution of inventories (-4.1 percentage points), “Bank Pekao analysts wrote on Twitter.

They also added: “in the light of these data, we do not change the forecast for the entire year and stay with the annual average of 0.9 percent.”

“High inflation and the decline in real wages have significantly weakened consumption, resulting in weak domestic demand. However, with the recovery of consumers’ purchasing power, we expect an improvement in activity in the second half of the year.

Analysts also wrote: “We expect that the first quarter was a downturn in the current cycle. Our forecasts indicate an improvement in results in the second half of the year – the growth rate will oscillate between 1.0 – 1.5 percent. In 2023, GDP growth will amount to an average of 0.7 percent.

“The Central Statistical Office slightly revised the GDP results for Q1 (-0.3% instead of -0.2%). Composition with a strong share of investments (+5.5% y/y), decline in private consumption (-2% y/y) and the mutually canceling impact of inventories (minus) and net exports (plus)” – mBank economists wrote.

Main photo source: Shutterstock

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