The possible complete closure of the Polish-Belarusian border to goods traffic would mean lost revenues from exports to Belarus in the amount of EUR 1.6 billion, the Polish Economic Institute reported. As indicated, exporters of parts for rolling stock, apples and live mycelium would be the most affected. This year, from January to August, more than 15% of the total number of goods was delivered to Belarus. Polish export of these products
Due to the migration crisis, the previous Tuesday at At 7 am, the border crossing in Kuźnica is closed, and travelers are directed to the crossings in Bobrowniki in the Podlaskie Voivodeship or Koroszczynie (Kukuryki) in the Lubelskie Voivodeship. It affected extending the waiting time to cross the Polish-Belarusian border by trucks.
Poland’s trade with Belarus
The estimates of the Polish Economic Institute show that the complete closure of the border with Belarus would mean lost export revenues for Poland in the amount of EUR 1.6 billion. “The scenario of the complete closure of the Polish-Belarusian border (both road and rail crossings) for freight traffic would mean for Poland lost revenues from exports to Belarus in the amount of EUR 1.6 billion and lower import expenditure by EUR 1 billion” – wrote the report .
The institute said that it would be most severe for exporters of those products for which Belarus is a significant recipient, i.e. parts for rolling stock, apples, live mycelium (in January-August 2021, over 15% of Polish exports of these products went to Belarus). “Belarus is also of great importance in the supply of certain products to Poland, including various types of wood panels (its share often exceeded 20%), potash fertilizers (29%) and cement (21%)” – added.
PIE reported that in addition to mutual Polish-Belarusian exchange, Poland’s trade with other countries, which passes through Belarus, mainly imports from Chinaand to a lesser extent also, inter alia, With Russia, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. The report cites data from Eurostat, the EU’s statistical office, which shows that in 2020 nearly 14 percent goods (in terms of value) imported from China were transported to Poland by rail, the vast majority of which along the New Silk Road via Belarus and the Małaszewicze transshipment terminal.
“The closure of the Polish-Belarusian border may also affect other EU countries for which Belarus and Poland are transit countries” – noted the authors of the report.
According to PIE, a possible closure of the Polish-Belarusian border for goods traffic would be more costly for the Belarusian side and would also cause problems for the Russian Federation. “Belarus has a large, 70% share of exports in GDP (the EU average is 47%). The most important source of Belarus’ income is the export of petroleum products, such as fuels and lubricants. In 2020, the European Union accounted for almost 20% of the total. trade in Belarus, and despite the sanctions imposed on the Lukashenka regime, it is the second, after Russia, trading partner for it, “we read.
The most important factors in Belarusian exports to the EU were: crude oil and petroleum products (approx. 20% of Belarus’ exports), wood and wood products (18%), fertilizers (7%).
The state of emergency at the border with Belarus
From September 2 – due to the migratory pressure in the border zone with Belarus – in 183 localities in the voivodeship In Podlasie and Lublin regions, a state of emergency is in force. It was introduced for 30 days under the ordinance of President Andrzej Duda issued at the request of the Council of Ministers. On September 30, the Seym agreed to extend the state of emergency for 60 days, and a day later the president’s decree in this matter was published.
The constitution does not provide for the possibility of renewing the state of emergency.
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