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Polish export to Russia. New

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Exports from Poland to Russia fell by almost 40 percent from January to November 2022. At the same time, as analysts of the Polish Economic Institute point out, exports to countries such as Uzbekistan, Armenia and Turkey, which are considered ways of circumventing the sanctions imposed on Russia, have increased.

“Export to Turkey increased by 45 percent to Kazakhstan – by 35 percent, up to Uzbekistan – by 74 percent, to Georgia – by 40 percent, to Armenia – as much as 344 percent.” – indicated analysts in the latest issue of “Tygodnik Gospodarczy PIE”. In their opinion, these data may suggest that some companies in Poland are also involved in circumventing sanctions.

Sanctions on Russia

It was recalled that after the invasion of Ukraine, Russia became the country subject to the largest number of sanctions. As a result of the sanctions, Russia’s trade with the EU countries, which before 2022 was the main trading partner of the Russian Federation, decreased. As noted, over the 11 months of 2022, EU exports to Russia decreased by 37%.

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Analysts have pointed out that the most painful for the Russian economy are restrictions on the sale of energy resources and problems with the purchase of technologically advanced components on which it was dependent. “The Russian government is trying to create new supply networks to meet the needs of its economy,” it said. Analysts noted that several countries significantly increased their exports to Russia.

China is the number one partner for Russia

“The largest supplier to Russia is China (export increase by 13%, to USD 7.71 billion). There was also a large increase in supplies from Turkey, which increased its exports by 130% in January-November last year year,” it said. It added that the value of exports from countries cooperating with Russia within the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU): Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Armenia and Kyrgyzstan also increased. “Trade data suggests that in many cases these were goods produced elsewhere, and countries maintaining close trade relations with Russia served as a way to evade sanctionsPIE analysts pointed out that Russia was trying to simultaneously redirect energy supplies to China and India, which made these two countries the main recipients of Russian oil. premium products, such as diesel oil ($100 per barrel) and heating oil ($45 per barrel), they stressed. According to experts, it will be more difficult to redirect these products to China and India, because these countries have a developed refining industry. For oil ($60 per barrel), they pointed out that Russia is forced to sell the raw material at a discounted price, pointing to “significant mobilization of Russia towards circumventing this sanction.”

Impact of sanctions on oil prices

“Russia has bought hundreds of tankers and created an obscure network of shipping companies around the world. At the same time, it has started to offer insurance necessary for oil trading to replace the European companies that dominate this market,” PIE analysts stressed. As the head of the International Energy Agency (IEA), Fatih Birol, announced this month, the cap on oil prices has hit Russia financially; in January, the country recorded revenues of 30 percent, i.e. $8 billion less compared to the same period in 2022. The head of the IEA also stated that the increase in global demand for oil this year will be generated by China, which may require the OPEC+ countries to revise their oil extraction policy. Countries of the Western coalition they are part of United States, Australia, Canada, Japan and 27 EU countries, introduced a price limit of $60 per barrel of Russian oil from December 5 last year, and the EU imposed an embargo on imports of Russian oil by sea. These sanctions had relatively little impact on world prices. Since the start of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the West has tried to degrade the Russian economy, generating tax revenues to finance the army while minimizing damage to Western economies.

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