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Wednesday, November 13, 2024

Polish GDP adjusted. The Central Statistical Office released new data on the Polish economy

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Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is one of the most important measures of a country's economic production. When it is growing, it means that the economy is producing more goods and services compared to the base period. Taking into account the new data from the Central Statistical Office, Poland's GDP in 2023 increased by 0.1% in real terms. compared to 2022.

Watch the video Glapiński on the Polish economic miracle: a mountain of gold and a jump in GDP

Investments have slowed down Polish GDP?

However, preliminary estimates (from April 2024) were 0.2%. From those published by the Central Statistical Office data shows that the largest changes should have been made in public consumption (a difference of 1.2 percentage points). Instead of the assumed 2.8 percent. increased by 4 percent Analysts, however, do not point to this as the main issue reason GDP revision.

“The main reason for the revision is the weakness of investments (not only in 2022) – we assume that the smallest enterprises” – analysts point out Pekao. Investments (compared to April data) were lower by as much as 0.5 percentage points. Instead of 13.1 percent amounted to 12.6 percent However, the revision also concerned data for 2022 compared to the previous year. In this case it was a difference of as much as 1 percentage point. to the minus.

“This is not good news for the Monetary Policy Council”

Slight corrections also affected the export of goods and services, which grew slightly stronger – by 3.7%. compared to 3.4 percent previously estimated and individual consumption, the correction of which concerned 0.7 percentage points. They were revised from -1%. to -0.3 percent “Consumption dropped 'only' by 0.3 percent in 2023 (instead of -1 percent) – in the quarterly data we will probably see a significantly higher bottom and a smaller gap as of today,” write Pekao analysts.

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“These are not good for the MPC information: smaller investments mean less potential of the economy, but the consumption gap will be smaller. I wonder if this explains the rebound in core inflation in the middle of this year,” the analysts further point out.

Slightly in the background is the GDP revision for 2022. Well, the domestic economy also performed worse than expected two years ago. According to new ones According to data, Poland's GDP then grew by 5.3%, not by 5.6% as reported. So 0.3 percentage points were taken away.

In the issued communication, the Central Statistical Office explained that the data revision is related to the fact that “more complete information has been received for last year regarding corporate finances, foreign trade in the field of goods and services and accounts of the general government sector prepared for the October fiscal notification of this sector” . They also take into account the results of the benchmarking revision carried out in 2024.



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