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Saturday, October 5, 2024

Precipitation. Forecasts are less optimistic “with each successive model recalculation”

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Heavy downpours are coming to Poland. The worst will be in the south and south-west of the country, where as much rain as usually falls in half a year may fall in three days. Services and meteorologists are warning of floods. – People who live by rivers, in places where rainfall causes flooding, please prepare for this – appealed Grzegorz Walijewski, spokesman for the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management, in “Wstajesz i wiesz” on TVN24.

The Genoese low Boris is approaching Poland and will be the cause of extreme rainfall in the second half of the week. As Grzegorz Waliejwski explained, it is a “low pressure system that brings moist air masses to Poland, from the Mediterranean Sea, from the Black Sea, and later this moisture falls in the form of very heavy, intense, long-lasting rain”.

Rainfall is expected to continue for three days, with the heaviest rainfall on Friday afternoon, Friday night and Saturday. – According to current forecasts, if we were to add up the most pessimistic values, there are as much as 350 litres of water per square metre. This is approximately six (monthly – ed.) rainfall standards for that region. – This is a rare situation – emphasised the spokesman for the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management.

See also: A rain wave has entered Poland. IMGW's highest warnings

“Catastrophic forecasts”

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– At this moment, with each subsequent recalculation of the model, the forecasts were less optimistic, I would even say catastrophic. At the beginning of the week, these values ​​were 50-80 liters, and with each day they were getting bigger and bigger – he pointed out.

The rain is expected to stop in most regions on Sunday, and in southern Poland only on Monday.

– I am asking people who live near rivers, in places where rainfall causes flooding, to prepare for this now – Walijewski appealed.

The Genoese lowlands have already caused major floods

As Walijewski pointed out, low-pressure systems of this type caused catastrophic and tragic floods in Poland in 1997 and 2010. – Even more rain fell then, 500-550 liters – recalled the IMWM spokesman.

As he explained, the Genoese lowlands are “nasty” to forecast. – It would only be enough for it to move a little more to the south, just 100 kilometers, and the precipitation could be much smaller – the expert explained. However, as he added, “all the models we are analyzing show that it wants to reach Poland and release this moisture in our country.”

See also: How to prepare for a flood

Downpours are not everything

Heavy rainfall is not the only dangerous phenomenon that awaits us in the second half of this week. – An atmospheric front will move through half of Poland and it will cause strong winds, but in the eastern part of the country, where the air mass is warmer, there will be storms. There will be a lot going on in the weather in the near future, he said.

In Europe, the Czech Republic and Austria are also at risk of heavy rainfall.

Safety rules during floods and inundationsRCB

Main image source: Shutterstock



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