Our betting guru Jones Is aware of is again to preview an thrilling weekend of Premier League motion, the place he sees a snug win for Tottenham at Forest.
Nottingham Forest vs Tottenham, Friday 8pm, dwell on Sky Sports activities
Tottenham have scored in all their final 29 matches throughout all competitions. Within the Premier League, solely Brighton (32) are on an extended present run.
Examine that to Nottingham Forest who’ve failed to attain in two of their final three matches. Their general attacking metrics have them rated as a relegation threatened facet as solely Luton, Burnley and Sheffield United have a decrease whole anticipated targets output this season. Targets win soccer matches, so it is easy to see why Spurs, enjoying such relentless and swashbuckling soccer, are 4/6 with Sky Wager for the away win.
My punting instincts have taken me to the playing cards market the place I am fascinated about Nottingham Forest to maintain the referee Jarred Gillett busy.
Ange Postecoglou’s attacking soccer philosophy ends in an enormous variety of one-on-one duels and take-on alternatives which finally raises the opportunity of Spurs gamers being fouled by the opposition. No staff have received extra free-kicks this season than Spurs (224) and solely Manchester Metropolis have drawn extra yellow playing cards from the opposition than Postecoglou’s facet (48).
Beneath the Metropolis Floor lights – with the supporters totally behind their under-pressure supervisor Steve Cooper – Forest could also be tempted right into a late sort out or two and shall be eager on disrupting the Spurs rhythm. Cooper’s facet to choose up extra reserving factors than Spurs at Evens is an efficient start line however I am pleased to again two particular person gamers to choose up a card.
Cheick Kouyate – a 7/2 shot with Sky Wager – has been booked in each his final two begins and has picked up six yellows in simply 1153 minutes of motion for Forest since signing final season. Additionally, Harry Toffolo shall be charged with maintaining tabs on the returning Brennan Johnson, whose tempo and trickery could result in the aggressive full-back mistiming a problem. It is 9/2 with Sky Wager he will get carded and a whopping 25/1 in the event you again the double.
SCORE PREDICTION: 0-3 | JONES KNOWS BEST BET: Cheick Kouyate & Harry Toffolo both to be carded (25/1 with Sky Bet – Bet Here!)
Any winners final week for Jones Is aware of?
- Ryan Christie 4+ tackles (2/1)
- Ben White +1 offsides (4/1)
- Arsenal +5 offsides vs Villa (5/4)
- Sheff Utd double likelihood vs Brentford (5/4)
- Everton draw no guess vs Chelsea (6/5)
- Luton +3 corners vs Man Metropolis (10/11)
Bournemouth vs Luton, Saturday 3pm
Bournemouth are working sizzling, successful 5 of their final seven video games – solely Liverpool have picked up extra factors since October 28. But, they’re fully unbackable right here at 1/2 with Sky Wager as Luton are constructed to wobble their foundations and expose them from set items. I fairly just like the look of the draw at 7/2.
Solely Nottingham Forest have conceded extra targets from set items conditions than the Cherries (7) with the anticipated targets metric of 5.85 suggesting underlying points.
The betting avenue to discover is the 9/2 with Sky Wager about Luton defender Alfie Doughty registering an help. For starters, Doughty is Luton’s set piece taker and he leads the charts within the Premier League for possibilities created per 90 minutes this season (1.52) of gamers to play 500 minutes or extra – suggesting a better degree of accuracy than the likes of James Ward-Prowse and Trent Alexander-Arnold. He is additionally main the way in which for crosses into the field per 90 (9.39) within the Premier League.
Doughty ought to be backed to seize his fourth help of the marketing campaign.
Sky Wager’s definition of an help…
“An Help is outlined as the ultimate cross or pass-come-shot resulting in the recipient of the ball scoring a aim. It additionally consists of the next actions: Penalty received; Try saved; Shot hit woodwork, rebound scored; Instigating an personal aim by means of a shot/cross.”
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1
Chelsea vs Sheffield United, Saturday 3pm – PLAY SUPER 6 TO WIN £750,000!
In what seems to be a reasonably drab betting warmth with a low-scoring Chelsea win anticipated, heading to the participant fouls and playing cards market could show a smart play. Auston Trusty is more likely to play down the left of the Blades defence and can have a busy afternoon of one-on-one duels with both Raheem Sterling or Cole Palmer asking him questions.
Trusty is an aggressive participant, who’s historically extra suited to enjoying centrally. He made 4 fouls in 1-0 win over Brentford, wiping out Keane Lewis-Potter with a few wild challenges that did draw a yellow card his means. Utilizing the Bet Builder on Sky Bet for him to make two fouls and be yellow carded comes out at 4/1.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-0
Manchester Metropolis vs Crystal Palace, Saturday 3pm – PLAY SUPER 6 TO WIN £750,000!
Latching onto a participant switching positions can open up nice betting alternatives in participant prop markets. Vital worth could be snapped up in the event you can react faster and smarter than the merchants, who maybe have their eyes elsewhere on extra liquid markets.
A fantastic present instance is centre-back turned defensive midfielder Chris Richards for Crystal Palace, who was excellent of their 2-1 defeat to Liverpool. He did some necessary work in entrance of his again 4, appearing because the destroyer the place he made 4 tackles and was yellow carded for a cynical foul within the second half.
Now, his latest information enjoying centre-back for Hoffenheim and Palace has him making 0.56 fouls per 90 minutes and his yellow card possibilities rated at simply seven per cent over that pattern dimension. Taking part in in this sort of function in opposition to Metropolis, who’ve drawn 54 yellow playing cards off the opposition this season – essentially the most of any Premier League staff – places him firmly within the body for selecting up one other reserving at 3/1 with Sky Wager in what ought to be a routine house victory.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-0
Newcastle vs Fulham, Saturday 3pm – PLAY SUPER 6 TO WIN £750,000!
I bow right down to anybody who noticed this Fulham aim bonanza coming. After scoring simply 10 targets of their opening 12 video games, they’ve now hit 16 of their final 4, together with placing back-to-back 5-0 house wins collectively. And to assume I used to be near pulling the set off on them to be relegated final month. Bullet dodged. Marco Silva is a significantly underrated operator.
Backside lips have been trembling all around the present at full-time at St James’ Park in midweek as someway Newcastle have been knocked out of Europe regardless of some spectacular performances. Eddie Howe has a severe process to try to galvanise these gamers to go once more and never make tiredness an excuse. With out Sven Botman and Nick Pope it is a defence that may be received at, particularly when assault like Fulham arrive in such purring type.
Throughout their final eight matches, Eddie Howe’s facet have shipped a mean of two.31 anticipated targets in opposition to per 90 and have confronted a per sport common of 17.25 pictures on their aim. A contemporary and firing Fulham can hit someplace close to these averages with the costs surrounding Alex Iwobi on the forefront of my betting plans.
In his final six begins the previous Everton man has fired 17 pictures and netted three targets enjoying in Silva’s fluid attacking foursome. These numbers make his shot costs of Evens with Sky Wager for 2 or extra and anytime goalscorer value of 5/1 very engaging punts.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-2 | JONES KNOWS BEST BET: Alex Iwobi to have two or more shots (Evens with Sky Bet – Bet Here!)
Burnley vs Everton, Saturday 5.30pm, dwell on Sky Sports activities – PLAY SUPER 6 TO WIN £750,000!
The Premier League has turn out to be a league the place over 2.5 aim backers can earn cash.
With 160 video games performed this season, the entire per-game aim common stands at 3.12. If this ratio stays constant, it will soar previous the earlier Premier League file of goals-per-game common, which was recorded final season at 2.85. This sturdy proof means we’re on the stage the place if over the two.5 targets line is the outsider, it should mechanically be thought of a possible play. That is what we now have for the Sean Dyche derby with Evens accessible on over 2.5 targets.
It is a stunning value contemplating Turf Moor has seen a mean of three.75 targets per sport in eight Premier League matches this season with six of these eight going over the two.5 line.
Everton are considerably weakened by means of the guts of their defence, too, with Jarrad Branthwaite suspended. The Toffees have misplaced each Premier League video games to Fulham and Aston Villa with out the James Tarkowski-Branthwaite axis, delivery 5 targets. Burnley can get on the scoresheet in a probably thrilling encounter.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-2 | JONES KNOWS BEST BET: Back Over 2.5 goals (Evens with Sky Bet – Bet Here!)
Arsenal vs Brighton, Sunday 2pm
Of their final 26 matches throughout all competitions in opposition to Man Metropolis, Man Utd, Liverpool, Chelsea, Newcastle, Tottenham and Arsenal, Brighton have scored 46 targets. To common virtually two targets per sport in these fixtures in opposition to such elite oppositions is outrageous, subsequently the entire Brighton targets line is my desired angle right here.
Roberto De Zerbi’s assault have additionally scored of their final 21 video games away from house within the Premier League. They will not be altering their risk-reward model for anybody, particularly taking up a staff they’ve scored eight targets in opposition to of their three fixtures with De Zerbi in cost. Arsenal ought to be nervous.
The 11/4 with Sky Wager for the Seagulls to attain two or extra targets is probably going to present you an amazing run in what may very well be a improbable spectacle of a soccer match.
Regulate Pascal Gross getting in on the aim involvement act, too.
De Zerbi has employed him in a really inventive hybrid function on the left of the Brighton midfield the place he’s linking up with Karou Mitoma very intelligently and offering very harmful attacking moments for his facet.
Throughout his final 303 minutes of Premier League motion, he has registered 5 aim involvements (4 assists, one aim) while posting six pictures on the right track and creating 15 whole possibilities for his teammates. Phenomenal numbers from a phenomenally underrated footballer who could be backed at 9/1 with Sky Wager to attain or help, have a shot on the right track and register two pictures. That is an amazing guess.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-2 | JONES KNOWS BEST BET: Pascal Gross to score or assist, have at least two shots & one on target (9/1 with Sky Bet – Bet Here!)
Brentford vs Aston Villa, Sunday 2pm
Lucas Digne’s suspension means Alex Moreno will step in down Villa’s left – an important place in Unai Emery’s attacking construction. The left-wing again is tasked with offering the attacking width as Emery instructs his midfielders to play inside to overload that central space. Digne ranks third within the Premier League for defenders by way of anticipated assists this season (2.61) and solely 4 gamers have tried extra crosses within the Premier League (108).
Moreno, on the premise of watching him final season, provides higher attacking risk than Digne so I am within the 9/2 with Sky Wager for him to register an help in a sport Villa ought to fancy their possibilities in.
Within the interval between March and the top of final season, he topped the charts for defenders by way of take-ons within the opposition half at 3.3 per 90 which places him in on a par with Karou Mitoma and his anticipated help return was averaging round 0.2 per 90 which may be very related returns to Kieran Trippier and Andy Robertson. He can help in an away win.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-2
West Ham vs Wolves, Sunday 2pm, dwell on Sky Sports activities – PLAY SUPER 6 TO WIN £750,000!
I am eager to again David Moyes to get a response from his West Ham defence after their 5-0 hammering at Fulham.
West Ham shall be in no-thrills mode underneath Moyes, who has seen his staff’s ship 4 or extra targets on 49 events however their file within the matches instantly after reveals they’ve received with out conceding 14 occasions. That is a 30 per cent likelihood of a win to nil coming straight after a thrashing. That appears attention-grabbing right here at 3/1 with Sky Wager.
It makes little sense that Wolves have managed to attain of their final 15 Premier League video games, since their opening day 1-0 defeat to Manchester United. Gary O’Neil has received them shifting in the suitable route however that could be a statistic you’d affiliate with Brighton or Tottenham, not a mediocre attacking staff like Wolves. The very fact they’ve scored simply as soon as in 9 of these 15 matches tells you it will not take a lot for this freakish run to finish. It would simply do right here.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-0
Liverpool vs Manchester United, Sunday 4.30pm, dwell on Sky Sports activities – PLAY SUPER 6 TO WIN £750,000!
Manchester United are 7/1 with Sky Wager to win a soccer match. How the mighty have fallen.
To be given only a 12.5 per cent likelihood likelihood of successful a Premier League sport reveals you simply how bewilderingly unhealthy United’s underlying course of is and the way wretched their file away from house in opposition to elite opposition is underneath Erik ten Hag. Bear in mind, United have taken only one level from their 11 Premier League away video games vs prime 9 sides underneath this supervisor (D1 L10) and have conceded 34 targets in these matches. Staggering.
With Bruno Fernandes suspended, their most inventive outlet, United’s solely hope of stifling Liverpool shall be to show this right into a canine battle. Break up play, waste time, be organised in a block and hope all the massive possibilities fall to Darwin Nunez quite than Mohamed Salah.
Ten Hag has proven he can utilise these techniques successfully, albeit often in opposition to lesser opposition however the way in which Liverpool fumbled round in opposition to Palace’s low block final weekend for 75 minutes stays firmly in my ideas. It was the identical when tasked with breaking down 10-man Everton at Anfield earlier this season with an absence of guile in midfield nonetheless hampering their assent. United are trusted to keep away from a hammering.
Swimming in opposition to the market and backing underneath 3.5 targets at 10/11 with Sky Wager actually is a runner if United can keep within the sport early doorways while taking an opportunity on the Liverpool to win 1-0 or 2-0 at 5/1 additionally stands out.