Presidential election 2025. Marek Jakubiak: EURO in Poland “literally in half a year”. Impossible

The presidential debate organized on April 14, 2025 was attended by 10 out of 13 candidates starting in the election. There were: Artur Bartoszewicz, Grzegorz Braun, Szymon Hołownia, Marek Jakubiak, Karol Nawrocki, Sławomir Mentzen, Joanna Senyszyn, Krzysztof Stanowski, Marek Woch and Adrian Zandberg. There was no Magdalena Biejat, Maciej Maciak and Rafał Trzaskowski. Some of the debaters, answering subsequent questions, attacked a particularly absent candidate of the Civic Platform, scaring “closing the system” if he won. To emphasize what a negative effect may have, they presented scenarios about subordinating Poland to the interests of Germany, the loss of sovereignty to the European Union or the Lagoon of the country by immigrants. There were also warnings about the “end of Polish zloty”.

And so to the question “Are you a supporter of Poland starting preparations for the introduction of the euro?”, Candidate Marek Jakubiak (from the Federation party for the Commonwealth, Free Republicans' parliamentary circle) replied that the euro, “this is a financial pyramid”. According to him, the Germans “have a supply of printed brands” and as soon as they feel a threat, “in an instant they go to their own national currency.” Next Jakubiak said that “Polish freedom is Polish gold, because this is our currency.” Then he declared:

In turn, Joanna Senyszyn, answering the same question, said: “Let us now thank President Lech Kaczyński that by signing the Lisbon Treaty, he agreed to introduce the euro in Poland. Because it will be introduced because the Lisbon Treaty is in force, and I do not think that the state here on the Republic of the Republic opposed the decision of President Lech Kaczyński.”

However, the current government not only does not present plans to introduce the euro in Poland, but even declares that it does not intend to do it. In the annual study “Conversation monitor with the Economic and Monetary Union” (from December 2024), the Ministry of Finance informs: “Bearing in mind the current degree of similarity of the Polish economy and the euro area – in particular in terms of the level of development (measured e.g. by GDP per capita) – Poland in the euro area could be a source of disorder in the economy.”

And if, however, the government changed his mind for some reason – is it possible to “literally within half a year” to introduce euro in Poland? We explain why Marek Jakubiak is wrong.

Poland joined the Economic and Monetary Union with the entrance to the European Union in 2004. In the Accession Treaty (Athenian treaty) from 2003 written:

This treaty was accepted not only by politicians, but also Polish citizens in the referendum in 2003, when they voted “regarding consent to the ratification of the Treaty regarding the accession of the Republic of Poland to the European Union.” Over 77 percent voters – with a turnout of almost 59 percent – was in favor of entering the EU and at the same time acceptance of the Accession Treaty, and thus: in the future of the common currency in the future.

The euro zone was founded on January 1, 1999, first in a non -cash form, and from January 1, 2002 in cash: euro currency was introduced to universal turnover. At the beginning, 11 out of 15 EU countries joined the euro area, then more – currently 20 countries joined.

Poland belongs to those who have not yet introduced euro – but is obliged to do so, because in Article 3 Treaty on the European Union entitled “Objectives and areas of the Union” in point 4 entries: “The Union establishes the Economic and Monetary Union, whose currency is the euro” (in the new version proposed by the European Parliament, the text would be changed to: “The EU is the euro”). This version of the EU Treaty also includes changes introduced by the Lisbon Treaty, which Joanna Senyszyn mentioned during the debate. He changed the treaty on the European Union and the treaty establishing the European Community, and entered into force on December 1, 2009. On October 10, 2009, President Lech Kaczyński ratified him.

To make the euro replacing the zloty in Poland, the appropriate conditions must first be met, the so -called Criteria of convergence (this does not only apply to Denmark). The fulfillment of these criteria is to ensure that the country that will enter the euro area will be economically stable and will not shake the euro area. The convergence criteria are four: – price stability (inflationary); – fiscal; – exchange rate; – interest rates. The European Commission and the European Central Bank dealt with the assessment of whether a given country meets the criteria of convergence. After assessing progress in the field of convergence criteria, the Commission and EBC publish their applications in relevant reports, published every two years.

As we explained in the concrete24 in 2023 – when PiS threatened that the decision to introduce the euro in Poland would be taken by the EU itself – from the report European Commission from June 2022 and European Central Bank From July 2022 it was clear that Poland only met one criterion – fiscal. Our public debt in relation to GDP did not exceed the acceptable limit of 60 percent. We did not meet the inflation criterion, because “in April 2022 the average 12-month HICP inflation rate in Poland was 7.0 percent, significantly exceeding the reference value for the price stability criterion of 4.9 percent.” The criterion of the exchange rate was not met, because the Polish zloty did not participate in the ERM II mechanism, in which you need to participate at least two years before adopting the euro. And long -term interest rates “in the year preceding April 2022, amounted to 3 percent, i.e. above the reference value of 2.6 percent.” In addition, EBC emphasized that “Polish law does not meet all requirements regarding the independence of the central bank, confidentiality, the ban on financing from the central bank's funds and legal integration with the Eurosystem.”

The topic of the conversion of a zloty into the euro, however, still returns in PiS or confederation messages – the parties use it to strengthen the mood of fear and negative emotions related to the EU, as well as to criticize the current government and accuse him of the desire to introduce the euro despite the reluctance of Poles. Because according to the latest study published On March 25, 2025, by Ariadna's nationwide research panel, as much as 74 percent Poles are opposed to the introduction of the euro, and only 26 percent. is for. The study showed that the attitude towards the euro has a great relationship with the approach to the European Union – 49 percent. EU favorable people support the change of currency, and Eurosceptics are almost unanimously opposed. Among the PO voters, 52 percent, among the introduction of the euro, among PiS supporters – only percent.

After two years from the above -mentioned EC and ECB reports, the Polish situation improved enough for the government to announce any plans in connection with the adoption of the euro? Well, on May 17, 2024, the Minister of Finance Andrzej Domański, answering Internet users' questions, said: “The Polish economy is absolutely not ready to accept the euro, we do not meet the criteria of convergence.” And he declared: “In the Ministry of Finance, work is not underway to adopt a common currency, even potential.” It is worth noting that the government of the current coalition did not reactivate the position of the attorney for integration with the euro area.

Every year, the Ministry of Finance publishes the aforementioned “Convergence monitor with the Economic and Monetary Union“, in which” assesses the level of preparation of Poland to deepen integration with other UGW countries. ” The Ministry of Finance does not see the possibility at the moment introduction of euro in Poland.

As part of the price stability criterion, it was provided that the average inflation rate in a given country recorded within one year preceding the study should not exceed by more than 1.5 points. percent Inflation of three Member States with the most stable prices. Meanwhile, the ministry informs: “In October 2024, the average 12-month growth rate of the HICP index in Poland amounted to 4.0 percent and was higher by 1.3 percentage points than a reference value of 2.7 percent. Poland is one of the 13 EU countries that currently do not meet the price stability criterion.”

As for the interest rate criterion, in one year before the study, the average long -term nominal interest interest rate may not exceed by more than 2 points. percent average from the same percentage of interest rates at at most three member states with the most stable prices. And the resort informs: “The long-term interest rate in Poland this year hesitated in the range of 5.2-5.7 percent. According to the estimates of the Ministry of Finance in October [2024] The average long -term interest rate for Poland for the last 12 months was 5.5 percent, thus formed by 0.7 points. percent Above the reference value of the criterion, which amounted to 4.8 percent. “

According to the fiscal criterion of convergence, the EU country, at the time of the assessment, cannot be covered by the decision of the EcoFin Council confirming the existence of an excessive deficit – and in Poland the EU Council in July 2024 found an excessive deficit. And the criterion of the currency exchange rate requires the participation of the country's currency in the European exchange rate mechanism (ERM II, ERM II,

“We could seriously talk about entering the euro area for a decade” – he assessed after the publication of the “convergence monitor” in an interview with tvn24.pl Economist from the WSB Academy Marek Zuber. And he explained: “Currently, Poland does not even meet the nominal criteria related to the adoption of a common currency, even the criterion of the public finance sector deficit, which should be less than 3 percent of GDP.” In addition, the adoption of the euro when Poland has been covered by the excessive deficit procedure will not be simply possible. “

“It is also a matter of inflation, it is also a matter of interest rates, so for today we do not meet those requirements that are necessary to enter the euro area” – noted the economist. He also drew attention to “real criteria, of which no one would settle us”. Among other things, we are talking about a similar to the economy of the country that wants to accept the euro, to the richest euro area countries. “It's about values ​​such as income per capita and work efficiency. We still lack a lot here” – he explained.

So the current government not only does not promise the introduction of the euro in half a year, but it would be simply impossible.

– This is not possible – confirms Marcin Zieliński, president and chief economist of the Citizens' Development Forum in the commentary for Zasta24. He explains: – Poland does not currently meet the criteria of convergence that countries wanting to join the euro area are to meet. We are still struggling with inflation, in 2024 in the three most stable euro area countries (Finland, Italy and Lithuania) it was 1 percent, in Poland 3.7 percent; We currently have a high public deficit and interest rates. What's more, to join the euro area, it is necessary to belong to the European mechanism of currency courses (ERM II) for at least two years – Poland is not in the group of ERM II countries. “

The economist as evidence of the inability to fulfill the “prophecy” of Marek Jakubiak gives Croatia, which entered the euro area on January 1, 2023. “The example of Croatia shows well that joining the euro area is a long process. The president of the Central Bank of Croatia Boris Vujčić announced in 2013 that Croatia would join the euro area. In 2020 she joined Erm II, and in 2023 she adopted the euro as a currency” – reminds the president of