Presidential election. CBOS survey – results

34, 23 and 21. So much a percentage of support can count in the presidential election in turn: Ko Rafał Trzaskowski candidate, PiS candidate Karol Nawrocki and confederation candidate Sławomir Mentzen. These are the results of the latest CBOS survey.

According to poll CBOS, Ko Rafał Trzaskowski's candidate, for whom 34 percent of respondents intend to vote for the greatest support (in the CBOS survey of March 7 it was 35 percent).

The candidate came in second PIS Karol Nawrocki, who can count on 23 percent support. A slightly lower percentage of respondents – 21 percent – declares support for the confederation candidate Sławomir Mentzen.

Polish leader 2050, third road candidate, Speaker of the Sejm Szymon Hołownia He can currently count on 4 percent of the votes ( – 1 percentage point compared to the CBOS survey of March 7), and the party's candidate Adrian Zandberg – 3 percent.

After 2 percent of the respondents, he declares support for the left -wing candidate Magdalena Biejat, Grzegorz Braun and Krzysztof Stanski (an increase by 1 percentage point compared to the CBOS survey of March 7). Marek Jakubiak can count on one percent of votes.

7 percent of respondents do not know who he would vote for.

See also: The latest survey of the opinion studio24

Nawrocki and Trzaskowski have the most stable alerts

In the latest survey, CBOS points out that Karol Nawrocki and Rafał Trzaskowski have the most stable, most mobilized electorate. As the survey noticed, the certainty with which their voters announce the support of these candidates in the election is on average 95 percent. – for the electorate of Karol Nawrocki and 94 percent – in the case of supporters of Rafał Trzaskowski. Adrian Zandberg can also count on his current voters (the average probability of support in his electorate is 92.5 percent).

“Given the great certainty of the vote in the case of the main competitors – Karol Nawrocki and Rafał Trzaskowski, Sławomir Mentzen may be less sure of his current state of possession – his electorate assesses the certainty of support in voting on average for 88 percent” Cbos noted.

The study also shows that Szymon Hołownia's electorate (82 percent) is the least mobilized and most labile.

Trzaskowski with a slightly less chance for the votes of the undecided

The study shows that every fifteenth surveyed declaring his intention to participate in the presidential election does not yet know which of the candidates he will vote for.

According to the poll, the preferences of undecided voters turn out to be quite distributed. “Szymon Hołownia and Karol Nawrocki (15 percent each) and Sławomir Mentzen (14 percent) could gain the most votes in this group.

The survey also shows that the few undecided voters are inclined to other candidates – Magdalena Biejat could vote every twenty potential voter who has defined preferences today (five percent), and only two in undecided voters (two percent) are inclined to the candidacy of Marek Jakubiak; Voting for Adrian Zandberg takes into account every hundredth respondent (one percent) from this group.

The study shows that currently every third undecided voter (34 percent) does not know who he could vote for, and even to a small extent he does not tend to any of the candidates.

Trzaskowski with greater support of KO voters than PiS voters

The poll also checked how the election preference system is shaped in the presidential election in electorates of individual political parties. The study shows that among the supporters of the two strongest groups – PiS and KO – their preferences in the presidential election are unambiguous, although Trzaskowski has a slightly greater support in the electorate of their grouping (93 percent) than Nawrocki among the declared PiS voters (87 %).

“Also in the Confederation heat and power sheets, her candidate, Sławomir Mentzen (82 percent) definitely wins. Voters of the other two groups of the ruling coalition, the third road and the left, more often than on” their own “party candidates want to vote for Rafał Trzaskowski,” said the poll.

The supporters of Trzaskowski include nearly half of the left electorate

According to the study, the KO candidate supports almost half of the supporters of the third road (49 percent), and much less of them, because less than every third, is in favor of Szymon Hołownia (32 percent).

“The supporters of Rafał Trzaskowski also include nearly half of the left electorate (46 percent). Over twice few people in this electorate support the left candidate Magdalena Biejat (22 percent)” – said.

According to the survey, Krzysztof Stanowski (14 percent) and the second of leftist candidates – Adrian Zandberg representing the Total party (11 percent) also have some supporters among supporters of the left.

Study on a sample of 1003 adult residents of Poland

“Voters who have not specified party preferences and people declaring absence in hypothetical parliamentary elections most often declare support for the confederation candidate Sławomir Mentzen (26 % and 13 percent, respectively)” – read.

According to the study, Karol Nawrocki (9 percent) is enjoyed by slightly greater support than Rafał Trzaskowski (6 percent), while the opposite of the parliamentary elections that are not very popular – Trzaskowski (9 percent) is slightly more popular than Nawrocki (7 percent).

Participation in the upcoming presidential election announces three -quarters of voting (75 percent). The study was carried out using the computer -assisted telephone interviews (CATI – 87.5 percent) and internet interviews (CAWI – 12.5 percent) in February 17-20, 2025 at a sample of 1003 adult residents of Poland.