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Thursday, February 22, 2024

Presidential poll. One politician with a record increase in support

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In the presidential elections, 25.8 percent of respondents would vote for Rafał Trzaskowski. Mateusz Morawiecki can count on 24.9 percent support, and Szymon Hołownia on 24.6 percent – according to the IBRIS poll for Onet. The portal reports that Trzaskowski lost 8.8 percentage points of support from potential voters, and Hołownia gained as many as 12.9.

In the IBRIS survey for Onet, respondents were asked the following question: “If elections for the President of the Republic of Poland were held next Sunday, would you take part in them?”

High attendance

The answer “definitely yes” was chosen by 64.5 percent of respondents, and “rather yes” by 10.9 percent. This means that the turnout could be as high as 75.4 percent and would be similar to that recorded during the last elections parliamentary – 74.38 percent.

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9.4 percent of respondents definitely do not intend to vote, and 13.9 percent chose the “rather not” option. The answer “I don’t know/it’s hard to say” was given by 1.3 percent of respondents.

Three politicians with a chance for the second round of elections

The respondents were also asked who they would vote for in this election. The list of candidates included: Krzysztof Bosak, Robert Biedroń, Szymon Hołownia, Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz, Mateusz Morawiecki and Rafał Trzaskowski.

In first place was the mayor of the capital, deputy head of PO Rafał Trzaskowski, with 25.8 percent of support. Second place was taken by former Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki (PIS) – 24.9 percent, and in the third place, Marshal of the Sejm Szymon Hołownia (Poland 2050) – 24.6 percent of the votes.

As Onet comments, taking into account the three percent estimation error, each of them has a chance to enter the second round. The portal also states that compared to the last presidential election survey IBRIS, there are significant changes in support for the above three. “Trzaskowski lost as much as 8.8 percentage points, Morawiecki slightly less, 5 percentage points. Hołownia is on an upward trend, gaining 12.9 percentage points,” we read in Onet.

This means a record increase in support for the current Speaker of the Sejm, Szymon Hołownia, who does not hide his plans to run in the presidential elections.

The next places in the survey were: Krzysztof Bosak (Confederation) — 8 percent, Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz (PSL) — 4.3 percent and Robert Biedroń (Left Wing) — 3.5 percent.

Survey results

As Onet writes, Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz lost 2 percentage points compared to the November measurement. Krzysztof Bosak was not included in the study two months ago, but now he reaches a similar level as Sławomir Mentzen, who was previously present, with a result of 7.2 percent. A similar situation applies to Robert Biedroń, but his support is 2 percentage points higher than that of Joanna Scheuring-Wielgus.

The answer “I don’t know/difficult to say” was given by 8.9 percent of respondents.

The survey was conducted by the Institute of Market and Social Research IBRiS on January 26-27, 2024 on a nationwide sample of 1,070 people using the method of telephone, standardized computer-assisted questionnaire interviews (CATI).

Main photo source: PAP

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