Fuel prices at gas stations may be higher – said Refleks analysts. According to the e-petrol.pl portal, domestic refineries have been raising prices since Christmas in response to the rising price of crude oil and the weakening of the Polish zloty, and station operators will not offset the increases with a decline in margins.
“Although during the first monitoring of fuel prices at stations this year, we noted a slight decline in average fuel prices, we may observe higher prices already next week,” Refleks analysts wrote in a commentary.
They pointed out that drivers currently pay 1-3 groszy less for a liter of gasoline than in the last days of December. Diesel is about 3 cents cheaper, and autogas prices are on average 2 cents per liter lower. Analysts indicated that on January 2, average fuel prices were respectively: for unleaded 95 petrol – PLN 6.04/l, for unleaded 98 – PLN 6.81/l, for diesel oil – PLN 6.13/l, and for autogas – PLN 3.16/l.
According to Refleks data, unleaded 95 fuel is 21 cents cheaper than a year ago, 98 petrol is 1 cent cheaper and diesel is 3 cents cheaper per liter. The exception is autogas, which is 0.24 cents more expensive per liter.
Forecasted fuel prices in January
On Friday, analysts of the e-petrol.pl portal presented a forecast for the retail fuel market for the second week of January. It assumes that drivers will pay PLN 5.97-6.08/l for 95 E10 petrol, PLN 6.08-6.19/l for diesel, and PLN 3.16-3.22/l for autogas.
“A liter of 95-octane gasoline costs less than PLN 6 again at the beginning of the year. However, such a price bargain will not last long, because the direction of changes in wholesale clearly indicates the upcoming price increases at stations,” said analysts of the e-patrol portal.
According to Refleks analysts, from January 6 to 12 this year. the average retail price of unleaded 95 gasoline will range from PLN 6.04 to 6.10/l, unleaded 98 – PLN 6.80-6.85/l, and diesel fuel – from PLN 6.13 to 6.18/l. A liter of autogas can cost PLN 3.18–3.23.
Sources of fuel price increases
Experts from the e-petrol portal pointed out that domestic fuel producers have been systematically increasing prices since the holidays. “Currently, 95-octane gasoline is experiencing levels not seen since August last year, and diesel is the most expensive since November,” they said.
Their data shows that a cubic meter of E10 gasoline today is valued at an average of PLN 4,745.80 and is PLN 76 more expensive than on Christmas Eve. In the same period, the price of diesel oil increased by almost PLN 90 and to PLN 4,956.20/m3.
According to analysts, the increase in fuel fees introduced in the new year is only to a “small extent” responsible for this upward movement. In their opinion, the sources of growth should be sought mainly in higher oil prices and the weakening of the Polish zloty in relation to the US dollar.
They added that the discount at gas stations came at the expense of retail operators' margins, which, especially in the case of diesel, fell to low levels. “This means that the possibilities of amortizing the changes visible on the wholesale market are limited and refueling costs will begin to increase in the coming days,” analysts predict.
Forecasts for the fuel market for 2025
According to Refleks analysts, Brent crude oil prices at the beginning of the year are at the level of USD 75-76. per barrel, which – in their opinion – combined with the weakening of the Polish zloty against the dollar, is already causing prices to increase on the domestic wholesale market. They added that the price increase was supported by a lower-than-expected decline in crude oil stocks USA in the last week of December (1.18 million barrels while a decline of 3.1 million barrels was expected) and likely higher demand for oil due to lower temperatures in the USA and Europe. According to experts, they also remain in the spotlight China in connection with the publication of macroeconomic data in the coming week.
According to e-patrol analysts, the beginning of 2025 for the oil market was marked by the announcement of higher demand, which is to be mainly the result of the “awakening” of the Chinese market. “This is expected to result from the issuance of a record 3 trillion yuan ($411 billion) in special treasury bonds in 2025. Moreover, the country has granted independent refineries a second tranche of oil import quotas, amounting to at least 152.49 million tons in 2025 r” – analysts pointed out. They pointed out that the World Bank on Thursday raised China's economic growth forecast in 2024 and 2025, which may confirm the vision of higher oil and fuel imports.
According to analysts, the International Energy Agency in its current forecast expects that global oil supply will exceed demand in 2025. They estimated that this may happen even if OPEC+ cuts remain in force, and the reason for this is the growing production from the United States and other non-affiliated producers that outweighs weak demand.
In their opinion, “the approach of President (Donald) Trump's administration towards the mining industry, as well as actions towards other exporters, including Iran and Venezuela, which are subject to sanctions,” will mean a lot. They stressed that they were aware of this Iranas evidenced by the latest statistics showing that the country's oil exports have increased “sharply” after slowing in the first half of December 2024, and earlier this year Iran reached its highest level in six years. They also recalled that Oil Minister Mohsen Paknejad declared that Iran is ready to “face” possible additional sanctions on oil exports that may occur after Iran takes office. Donald Trump.
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