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Prices of apartments in Poland data for the first quarter of 2023. NBP data on transaction prices

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The beginning of 2023 brought corrections in apartment prices in several locations. In most cities, however, rates continued to climb. As a result, you have to pay 4.9 percent more per meter of premises in the main markets than a year ago, according to the latest data from the National Bank of Poland. The ongoing recovery means that the chances for discounts are dwindling, and the likelihood of further price increases is increasing.

As Bartosz Turek, the main analyst of HREIT, points out, in the first quarter of 2023 we paid for apartments in the largest cities by 4.9 percent. more than at the beginning of 2022 – according to the latest data published by NBP (hedonic index for 7 cities). This is the third reading in a row, which suggests slower and slower increases in home prices.

Changes in prices of second-hand apartments in 7 citiesHREIT

NBP hedonic index. What is this?

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Within NBP hedonic index takes into account not only the prices of flats recorded in notarial deeds, but also the quality of the flats sold. As a result, the data is “cleaned” from the fact that the structure of the properties being sold changes. Without this measure, it would have turned out that the average transaction price on the secondary market grew slower in the period under review, by less than 2%. – according to NBP data.

This is most likely the result of the fact that Poles often buy apartments of a lower standard and in a worse location, ie simply cheaper, which lowers the usual average transaction price. However, the hedonic index is designed to show how the prices of apartments of similar quality change, and not just to calculate the average price of all transactions thrown into one bag. It is therefore a measure that allows you to track the pace of changes in housing prices in a more accurate way.

New apartments are more expensive

And what was the situation like? primary market? Here, unfortunately, the central bank analysts failed to create an index similar to the one for the second-hand housing market. So we have to resort to the more unreliable simple average price. Effect?

– In the case of apartments from developers, the average transaction rates were 6.3% higher in the first quarter. higher than in the same period a year ago, according to the latest NBP data. Therefore, the dynamics was higher than on the secondary market – emphasizes Turek.

Gdańsk, Olsztyn and Warsaw – it’s cheaper here than in 2022.

Turek notes that although the data suggesting an increase in housing prices prevail in the NBP data, it is impossible not to mention examples of minor discounts. And so on the secondary market during the year by almost 2 percent. rates per meter in the capital went down. The discount of less than 1% (y/y) was also recorded by NBP in the case of used apartments in Olsztyn. Developers by 3 percent. flats in Gdańsk were also sold cheaper than a year ago.

In the analyst’s opinion, more positive information for people who have been waiting for discounts on the housing market for years can be found by comparing the rates from the beginning of this year to those from the last quarter of 2022. In this approach, discounts can be found on 6 out of 16 markets surveyed in the case of second-hand real estate. On the primary market, such discounts, compared to the situation at the end of last year, can be found in 5 out of 17 cities surveyed.

10 thousand per meter more often

However, this does not change the fact that we have as many as 3 voivodeship cities in Poland, where you have to pay over 10,000 for a meter of second-hand premises. zlotys. These are Gdańsk, Kraków and Warsaw. It is also no secret that apartments from developers – due to their higher standard – usually have to pay more. As a result, on the primary market of cities with prices exceeding PLN 10,000 per meter, we have twice as much, i.e. as much as 6. These are Gdańsk, Gdynia, Kraków, Szczecin, Warsaw and Wrocław – according to the latest NBP data.

Housing prices in the largest cities [I kwartał 2023 r.]HREIT

The housing market has recovered, which means that there will be no discount

– It should be emphasized that the information summarizing the first quarter is preliminary. They will be subject to revision when the data for March will also be submitted to the central bank. Analysts do not have these so far. This is important in the context of the recovery that has been taking place on the housing market in recent months, the analyst points out.

Bartosz Turek admits that “we cannot completely rule out a negative scenario for the housing market, but every week there are more and more arguments for a completely opposite development of events.”

He adds that BIK data has been showing a revival in demand for housing loans for 8 months, and they are accompanied by Otodom Analytics data showing at the same time a more than two-fold improvement in the sales of apartments. They are clearly better even in data of the Central Statistical Office on the number of apartments whose construction is started by developers.

– When we add to this the government program of cheap loans for the purchase of the first apartment, a good situation on the labor market and the beginning of the cycle of interest rate cutsthe outlook for the real estate market is becoming more and more optimistic, the analyst points out.

Main photo source: Adobe Stock

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