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Friday, December 8, 2023

Problems of the Polish economy. Experts talk about a consumer recession

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Economists talk about a consumer recession, and the results of the Central Statistical Office confirm that, contrary to the government’s propaganda of success and prosperity, our economy is not doing well. GDP fell by almost four percent in the second quarter of this year compared to the first quarter.

What is the actual situation of the Polish economy? This may be evidenced by the suddenly called press conference of the deputy finance minister, who spoke only about one thing – the negative data of the Central Statistical Office and Eurostat regarding the Polish GDP. He argued that it was bad, but still good. – Of course, there is no question of a technical recession, looking at quarter-on-quarter. There is no question that we will not close the year 2023 with economic growth of one percent, assured Deputy Minister Artur Soboń.

This conference and the nervous reaction of the authorities is a response not only to the data on GDP from the second quarter, which fell by 3.7 percent, which is the worst in the entire Union, but also to the comment of the leader of the Civic Coalition, Donald Tusk, who reminded us that we were the leaders of Europe and today we are scrubbing the bottom. – If we estimate and compare quarter to quarter, because it was compared in this entry by Donald Tusk, Eurostat also reported GDP growth at the beginning of the year, for the first quarter, which was a record – emphasizes Rafał Bochenek from PiS. – Let the rulers walk and listen what those who run the business say in the bazaar. Those who have a small shop. Those who have a small business. They really are in crisis – answers Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz from PSL.

Recent data – as indicated by bank analysts – including state-owned banks, point out that the situation is worse than predicted, that we have a deepening decline in GDP from quarter to quarter. They write directly that we have entered a recession. – It was expected that there would be a recession in the first half of the year, only the National Bank of Poland and the government claimed that it would not. Fortunately, this recession is quite shallow, these are not some very deep slumps in growth – explains professor Witold Orłowski, an economist.

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Investment questions

When we look at year-on-year data, the situation may not seem so bad – a decrease in GDP by half a percent. But since this is the second quarter in a row in the red, according to the definition, we have a technical recession. How did it happen? – Because we do not have money for investment, we have the lowest investment rate for several years, we do not have money from Europe for KPO – says Tomasz Trela ​​from Nowa Lewica.

As we hear – the economy is like an airplane. It must run on two engines – consumption and investment. – So if this plane flies mainly on one engine, this plane will not fly far and will not fly higher if investments do not start – alarms Professor Tadeusz Kowalski, an economist from the Poznań University of Economics and Business.

Private companies do not invest because of unstable law and expensive loans, and additionally, due to inflation, our income did not withstand the race with prices – we buy less, and so the circle closes. – What I warned about from the very beginning has come true, that if you don’t fight inflation, you will have two of these things at once. Both inflation and a decline in economic growth – argues Izabela Leszczyna from PO.

The government and the president of the NBP argue that it is not bad, that it is good that prices are no longer rising.

Main photo source: TVN facts

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