Who would win the second round of the presidential elections if Rafał Trzaskowski and Karol Nawrocki faced each other? According to the latest CBOS poll – assuming such a scenario – the former could count on 46 percent support, and the latter – on 34 percent.
On Tuesday, the Public Opinion Research Center (CBOS) published the next edition survey election campaign, in which a scenario was simulated in which the candidate of the Civic Coalition and the mayor of Warsaw would face each other in the second round of next year's presidential elections Rafał Trzaskowski and the candidate PISpresident of the Institute of National Remembrance Karol Nawrocki.
According to a survey conducted between December 2 and 4, in such a scenario Trzaskowski could count on 46 percent. support, and Nawrocki for 34 percent. 17 percent respondents declared that they would not vote for either of the two candidates, and 3 percent couldn't answer the question who they would vote for.
Poll: who would be voted for in the second round if Rafał Trzaskowski and Karol Nawrocki entered itCBOS/tvn24.pl
The difference between the candidates is smaller than in the previous survey conducted between November 18 and 20, which took into account the identical scenario of the second round of elections. Then Trzaskowski won 50 percent. support, and Nawrocki 24 percent. 18 percent then declared no support for any of them, 8 percent. there were undecideds.
Party preferences of voters
The CBOS survey also took into account respondents' party preferences. Rafał Trzaskowski enjoys the support of almost all voters – 98%. electorate of the Civic Coalition, and Nawrocki – also 98 percent. – PiS electorate. Among Confederation voters, 50 percent would support Nawrocki in the second round, and 8 percent Trzaskowski, and 40 percent would not vote for any of the two candidates, 2%. answered “it's hard to say”.
Among Third Way voters, Trzaskowski enjoyed 80 percent support in the second round. electorate, and Nawrocki – 5 percent. 14 percent Third Way voters would not support either Trzaskowski or Nawrocki. Trzaskowski also enjoys the support of almost all voters – 98%. Left voters.
When it comes to voters with unspecified party preferences, 45 percent supported Trzaskowski in the second round, and 23 percent Nawrocki. 17 percent has no opinion on this matter.
The survey was carried out using telephone interviews (62.8%) and online interviews (37.2%) in the period from December 2 to 4, 2024, on a sample of 1,000 adult residents of Poland.
Main photo source: PAP