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Real estate. Apartment prices and the Apartment to start program. Expert opinion

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If the government does not include price limits per square meter in the draft “Mieszkanie na start” program, another strong price driver will appear on the housing market – said Otodom real estate market expert Ewa Tęczak.

In her opinion, it can also be expected that, as in the case of other programs of this type, until the details are announced, some sellers – developers or private owners – will refrain from issuing new offers.

Expert: there will be further increases

– Given the already significant supply problems we experienced last year, which resulted in a drop in the offer level by nearly 10,000 units on the development market alone. y/y (i.e. by 19% in the seven largest markets), we are almost guaranteed that we will face further serious increases in apartment prices – said the expert.

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She pointed out that the draft of the new support program for the real estate market assumes that it will start in six months with a budget of PLN 500 million for this year.

– Again, as with the 2% Safe Loan, we will be dealing with a limited pool of funds. So we know that there will be a promotion and we know that we have to act quickly to get it – said Tęczak.

She also admitted that until we know the details, it will be difficult to assess whether the new proposal will be better than the one introduced by the previous government, because the level of complexity of the announced program seems to be much greater than in the case of its predecessor.

– It seems that the group of potential borrowers will be larger. However, it also seems that the program will be aimed more at buyers of larger apartments and families with children than singles – and therefore potentially buyers of their first apartments – she added.

The expert reminded that the level of lending we observed at the end of 2022 was record low and clearly showed how much the purchase of an apartment in Poland depends on the possibility of taking out a mortgage loan.

– Therefore, increasing the availability of financing – including through the subsidy system – is certainly what demand needs to materialize in the form of sales. In 2023 – also thanks to the Safe 2% loan. materialized in the form of over 54 thousand. transactions on the development market of the seven largest cities alone – she said.

Tęczak recalled that right after the announcement of the Safe 2% loan program, which took place in the middle of last year, there was a sudden increase in bookings for primary market and preliminary contracts on the secondary market. In the next phase, prices increased very quickly.

Where have prices increased the most?

Citing data from Otodom Analytics, she noted that during the year in the most important markets in the country, prices increased by 10-11%. in Katowice and Łódź, by 16-17 percent in Warsaw and Wrocław, 22-23 percent each. in Krakow and Poznań. In turn, in Gdańsk – compared to December 2022 – prices increased by 26%, which nominally gave an additional PLN 3.2 thousand. PLN per square meter.

– If we take into account the currently cheapest of these seven markets – Łódź, where average offer prices are currently over PLN 9.6 thousand. PLN (per sq m – editor), this means an increase of PLN 56,000 for those interested in purchasing a 50 sq m apartment compared to last year. PLN in the total price. In Wrocław, you currently need to have PLN 103,000 for such an apartment. PLN more, and in Gdańsk as much as PLN 161,000 more. Does the creditworthiness of buyers, despite the statistical increase in average wages, interest rate cuts and easing the calculation of creditworthiness by banks has increased so much this year? We still can’t forget about inflationwhich is no longer as shocking as it was a few months ago, but it is still with us – said the expert.

New housing program

On Thursday, the Ministry of Development and Technology presented the assumptions of a new government program that is intended to help Poles purchase a flat. The starter apartment assumes, among other things, that individuals and families whose monthly income is within the limits specified by the ministry can receive a loan with a preferential interest rate. In the case of a 1- and 2-person household, the interest rate will be 1.5 percent, for a 3-person household – 1 percent, for a 4-person household – 0.5 percent, and for a 5-person household – 0 percent. The project also provides for subsidies for loan repayments. For a single-person household it will be PLN 200,000. PLN, for a 2-person room – PLN 400,000. PLN, for a 3-person room – PLN 450,000. PLN, for a 4-person room – PLN 500,000. PLN, and for a 5-person room – PLN 600,000. zloty. The subsidy program is to be spread over 10 years. For its implementation – as indicated by the Minister of Development and Technology Krzysztof Hetman – PLN 500 million was allocated in the 2024 budget. The starter apartment is scheduled to be launched in mid-2024.

Main photo source: Shutterstock

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