With the launch of the Secure Credit 2 percent program, There are clearly more people willing to buy an apartment, and developers must quickly respond to this demand, HREIT analysts reported. However, they noticed that the decrease in the number of construction starts is worrying.
From the last data from the Central Statistical Office, shows that in June developers started construction of less than 8.9 thousand. premises, which – according to HREIT experts – means a decrease by almost half compared to June 2022. They pointed out that similarly poor results were recorded in 2015.
The decline may deepen
According to experts, the decrease in the number of construction starts is worrying, especially since buyers returned to sales offices before spring, while in July there was a “sudden increase in demand” caused by the launch of loans with subsidies from the state budget. They also noted that there will be more and more people willing to buy flats, especially since cuts are very likely this year interest rates.
It is true that – as they indicated – work on launching further investments is in full swing, but it takes months. “The experience from the first year of the epidemic suggests that from the moment of recovery on the part of buyers, you have to wait 1-2 quarters to improve in the area of started investments” – they added. They also noted that the shrinking sales offer is conducive to price increases.
“Today, in the seven largest markets, developers have about 40,000 apartments available for sale (…). At the current level of sales, this number should be slightly more than half” – they wrote.
Due to the demand for flats, the offer available on the secondary market has also decreased in recent months. “So far we are not dealing with any revolutionary changes, but from early spring, when there were about 150,000 used apartments for sale, to the beginning of July, this number has fallen by almost 10,000 units, and such a change can no longer be underestimated” – they assessed. .
They added that this decline may deepen in the coming weeks.
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