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Real estate prices 2021. Where have prices gone up? Where did they fall? Forecasts

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Real estate prices are currently about 10 percent higher than last year, writes Bartosz Turek, chief analyst of HRE Investments, in his commentary. The expert notes that in the last quarter the price of new flats has increased by more than 2 percent, and used apartments by as much as 5.2 percent. According to the analyst, this may be the effect of catching up after 2020.

As expected, the rise in house prices in the second quarter accelerated, according to the latest NBP data, quoted by Bartosz Turek.

“In the 7 largest markets, the average transaction price of a flat from a developer in the second quarter was more than 11% higher than a year earlier. Poles paid over 9% more for a square meter of second-hand premises in the second quarter than in the previous year. These are averaged data. for the 7 largest markets. This group includes: Gdańsk, Gdynia, Kraków, Łódź, Poznań, Warsaw and Wrocław, “we read.

Record demand on the real estate market

Bartosz Turek notes that there are more people willing to buy flats than flats available for sale. “And although developers are trying to fill these gaps, it is impossible to do it overnight. The problem today is the insufficient supply of apartments. Its strengthening is the key to satisfying the needs of Poles” – writes the analyst.

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“On the other side of the market, we have a record demand. A lot of compatriots, taking advantage of the improving economic situation on the labor market, decided to buy an apartment using the cheapest mortgage loan in history” – we read.

The expert emphasizes that we are also dealing with a record inflow of cash to the housing sector. “The latter is stimulated by the fact that deposits are almost interest-free, so people with sufficiently large savings buy flats instead of counting on rickety interest – especially in the face of increased inflation” – explains the expert.

Second-hand housing prices

According to Bartosz Turk, the data of the central bank contain a curiosity.

“It turns out that in the second quarter alone there was a very rapid increase in prices. In 7 large cities, the average meter of a new” M “increased by 2 percent, but a meter of a second-hand apartment by as much as 5 percent. dealing with catch-up by second-hand flats, the price increases of which in recent quarters have been lower than the increases ordered by developers “- writes the expert.

However, the analyst points out that the bad news is that if this pace continued, the apartments would be used by more than 20 percent in a year. more expensive than today.

“Fortunately, this is an unlikely scenario. Of course, it is true that the optimism of my countrymen is growing, the economy is recovering dynamically, and loans are the cheapest in history and all these factors will not disappear quickly, but the condition in the housing sector was influenced by one very important factor “- he writes.

“It’s about catching up with the arrears that began at the beginning of the year. First, the largest banks made loans with 10% own contribution, and then we started to say goodbye to the third wave of the epidemic. Poles wanted to fulfill their dreams of buying a flat, which they had previously delayed for a long time. for later “- explains Turek.

Changes in the prices of second-hand housingHRE Investments compilation based on NBP data

Real estate prices – where have they fallen?

As the expert emphasizes, the NBP data show only two cities where home prices are lower today than a year ago.

“A cosmetic correction was recorded in the case of second-hand apartments in Rzeszów and new premises in Opole. In both cases it may only be a statistical effect. It just so happened that exactly a year earlier in Opole, the central bank recorded a 10% increase in the prices of new and new apartments. this in just a quarter “- we read.

“Similarly in Rzeszów – second-hand flats increased significantly in the first half of last year. In both cases, the current result is the result of comparing today’s data to the high base from a year ago” – writes the analyst.

“In most cities, a double-digit increase in prices is observed in relation to the situation in the second quarter of 2020. As a rule, recently new apartments have become more expensive than used apartments, although the last quarter shows that second-hand apartments have clearly started to catch up. the same will be the case in the future, as the rule is that the market trends initiated on the new housing market are transferred to the used housing market with a certain delay “- summarizes the expert.

Main photo source: Shutterstock



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