Is a wave of bankruptcies coming in Russia? Experts from the TsMAKP think tank, which is close to the authorities, analyzed data on over 300,000. Russian companies from 2019-2023. They took into account, among others: interest costs related to the borrowed money loans and rental costs, pointing to high interest rates and inflation. In their opinion the percentage of companies in financial difficulty increased in 2024 from 12.3 to 37.2 percent. Every fourth enterprise is unable to service its debt – reports “The Moscow Times”. Analysts say that next year the number of potential bankrupts will increase to 12.2%..
When will the peak of company bankruptcies occur? Analysts from TsMAKP emphasize that so far the number of bankruptcies has not increased, except for the transport, communications and construction industries. They also point out that the standard lag between a deterioration in conditions and an increase in bankruptcies is 6 to 12 months. In their opinion this means that the peak of bankruptcies may fall in the second quarter of 2025. The risk of bankruptcy is reported by, among others, airlines, shopping mall owners, car dealers, road construction companies and miners.
Stop in Russia at record level: In October 2024 bank central Russia raised interest rates to 21 percent. (the highest since 2003). According to a survey conducted by Reuters, the next meeting will be held on December 20 rates may be raised by another 200 basis pointsi.e. to the level of 23 percent. Meanwhile, annual inflation rose to 9.32 percent in the previous week. (compared to 9.07% in the period from December 3 to 9) – reported the TASS agency.
More on this topic they wrotein the text: “Russian industry in trouble. Rostiech's director warns: Most will go bankrupt“.
Sources: The Moscow Times, Reuters Agency, TASS
Write to the author: dominik.molinski@grupagazeta.pl