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Russia. Rebellion of the Wagner group, Prigozhin goes to Moscow. Koziej: We are witnessing Russia’s reaction to losing the war

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We are witnessing Russia’s reaction to losing the war – this is how the revolt of the Wagner Group, led by Yevgeny Prigozhin, was assessed on TVN24 by the former head of the National Security Bureau, General Stanisław Koziej. In his opinion, the Russian army, busy suppressing the revolt, will not be able to organize operations on a larger scale in the near future. – This is a big opportunity for Ukraine – says the general.

Yevgeny Prigozhin, the leader of the Wagner Group, announced on Friday night that his mercenary fighters were entering Rostov-on-Don, having previously announced that his the camp was attacked by troops of the regular army of Russia. The head of the mercenaries emphasized that he intended to “restore justice” in the army and called for no objections.

The independent Russian portal Meduza reports that the leader of the Wagnerians demands a meeting with the defense minister Sergei Shoigu and chief of the general staff, Valery Gerasimov, and threatens to “go to Moscow” otherwise.

Read also: General Bieniek on the Wagnerian rebellion: Russia realized that it had grown cancer on its body

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Russian soldiers in RostovARKADY BUDNITSKY/EPA/PAP

“Political crisis with the use of force in Russia”

“We are witnessing Russia’s reaction to losing the war,” said retired Brigadier General Stanisław Koziej, former head of the National Security Bureau, on TVN24 on Saturday morning. – This is how a state of this type reacts, an authoritarian state in which there is no other way to change the political course in a changing situation, as dramatic and dangerous for the state as losing the war, other than rebellions or assassinations – emphasized the officer.

The former head of the National Security Bureau emphasized that in a democratic country the parliament can correct the political course of the executive. “It’s not possible in Russia, so it’s not such a big surprise that there is an internal crisis in Russia, a political crisis, combined with the use of force,” he added.

Read also: Wagnerians in Russia’s Rostov Oblast. The governor calls for calm

General Koziej does not believe the words of Prigozhin, who on Friday declared that his Wagner Group had been attacked by regular Russian troops. – Perhaps there was some accidental shelling, as happens in war. I think that if there was such an incident, Prigozhin simply used it to initiate his operation of a military mutiny inside Russia. He is a political player with big ambitions (…). He is certainly a representative of some larger group of the Russian elite and now is probably a critical moment, will anyone else join Prigozhin and his troops, will he wait neutrally, will all state structures definitely support Putin – assessed the TVN24 guest.

Russian soldiers in RostovARKADY BUDNITSKY/EPA/PAP

Prigozhin’s rebellion and the situation of Ukraine

The former head of the National Security Bureau stressed that in connection with the rebellion of the Wagner Group, “(Russia’s – ed.) actions at the strategic level will be paralyzed.”

– The Russian army will not be able to organize operations on a larger scale in the near future. This is a great opportunity in my opinion Ukraine to step up its initiative, perhaps to deliver the main strike at such a critical moment for Russia (…). Putin and the defense minister will have to focus, it is not known for how long (…) to pacify Prigozhin’s rebellion, and only then deal with possible active actions in Ukraine. Russia will be passive in Ukraine during this rebellion and for some time after the rebellion, emphasized General Koziej.

The officer added that Prigozhin was already “finished” in Putin’s eyes. “I can’t imagine that he can continue to function, that some kind of agreement can be reached. The question is who will win. As of today, it seems that the structures of the state are stronger, that Prigozhin has little chance of victory. But on the other hand, his utterance of armed obedience (…) was a surprise to the observers, but also, apparently, to Putin. I wouldn’t say one hundred percent that Prigozhin will be pacified. There is a slight chance that this rebellion may spill over, noted Stanisław Koziej.

Main photo source: Reuters

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