The guests of “Fakty po Faktach” talked about a possible conflict between Russia and Ukraine. Krystyna Kurczab-Redlich, a long-time correspondent in Russia, assessed that this situation was “a springboard that must have brought” Vladimir Putin “out of oblivion or removal from international politics. – The point is to keep such great tension in Ukraine as long as possible, which will give Putin political profits in the internal forum – she said. General Bogusław Pacek spoke about what is Moscow’s “minimum goal”.
General Bogusław Pacek, director of the Institute for Security and International Development and a long-time correspondent in Russia and author of books about Vladimir Putin and Russia, Krystyna Kurczab-Redlich spoke in “Fakty po Faktach” on TVN24 about the Russian-Ukrainian conflict.
Kurczab-Redlich, when asked if there would be a new war in Ukraine, replied: – I do not think that there will be a war in the way we assume it – that there will be a sudden attack, there will be battles and so on.
– It seems to me that we need to ask ourselves two questions regarding the war: why Putin needs all this trouble and why Ukraine – said the expert.
Kurczab-Redlich: the point is to keep such great tension in Ukraine as long as possible
– In my opinion (…) it is the main springboard that had to get him out of a kind of oblivion or withdrawal from international politics that took place after 2014. However, it was isolated for a long time after the attack on Ukraine. So for him, going to the international forum, for him recognition in the world, for him the fact that the president of the United States talks to him again, that he is received by the president of France, that the chancellor of Germany bows to him, is a kind of insurance package for his internal policy – she said Kurczab-Redlich.
She also pointed out that “this internal policy is very important because in two years there will be presidential elections in March”.
She admitted that you might be wondering why you should worry about what will happen in two years, but – she pointed out – “the Kremlin cares about it already, special meetings are already dedicated to it, and so on.” She said that at such a meeting at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs in November, devoted to, inter alia, elections, Putin said: our behavior – and then the tension around Ukraine was already enormous – had resulted, but some tension is visible, it would have to last for a long time.
– I think that the point is to maintain such great tension in Ukraine as long as possible, which will give Putin political profits on the internal forum – said the expert on Russian issues.
Satellite images of troops near the border with Ukraine. “This is a theater”
General Bogusław Pacek was asked about the thread 127,000 Russian soldierswho, according to Ukraine, are located on its border, and satellite images of this area.
How do you look at the satellite photos showing what stands on the border with Ukraine, what is collected there, what do you think? Anita Werner, who hosted the program, asked the military.
– I think this is theater, that it is theater for viewers from Warsaw to New York and this theater is played out in a very credible way. The viewers feel the art to the end and absolutely believe both the actors and the director that something is really happening, assessed the director of the Institute for Security and International Development.
In his opinion “it does not matter much”. – These 120,000 are not soldiers who are to win the future war. This is an element of absolutely intimidation, very effective and credible intimidation, he argued.
– Today, reading a little between the lines, after the Lavrov-Blinken meeting I have become convinced that Russia does not want to deal with the West – said the TVN24 guest.
– Will there be a war? Vladimir Purtin, the Russian authorities do not want a war with Ukraine and are doing everything – this is the classic of Russian action – (…) by credibly threatening, applying pressure, using the methods of military pressure, because this is no longer military pressure (… ) to achieve your goals, the general continued.
And – as he said – “the minimum target is Ukraine”. – Vladimir Putin, the Russian authorities have assessed the situation unequivocally – now or never. They judged the United States to be both weak and too focused on China not to allow themselves to make such a gesture. Europe is so divided, and perhaps partly in favor of the Russian Federation, that this move should be made now, he analyzed.
– Ukraine is the minimum, and dreams are bigger. (..) Today’s signal that z Some NATO installations withdrew from Bulgaria and Romania, this is something that nobody can think of, and it is tapping this drum very high in order to hit at least the minimum. I am convinced that Vladimir Putin believes one hundred percent that this minimum will win. As far as he can, we’ll see. It all depends on the determination of the United States, on the determination of the West – assessed General Pacek.
Main photo source: SATELLITE IMAGE 2021 MAXAR TECHNOLOGIES