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Friday, April 12, 2024

Russian achievements and problems with equipment supplies to Ukraine. ISW analysts warn

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Since Russia's last offensive began in October 2023, its forces have occupied an area totaling 505 square kilometers, the Washington-based think tank at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said in its latest assessment on March 28. The think tank warns that the marginal increase in the pace of the Russian advance does not reflect the threat of Russian operational success in the face of continued delays in US aid.

Since the beginning of the offensive in October 2023, Russian troops have occupied another 505 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory – estimates the American think tank Institute for War Studies (ISW). This is slightly less than the area of ​​Warsaw, which is 517 square kilometers.

Analysts say that from the beginning of the year to March 28, the Russian army occupied almost 100 square kilometers more territory than in the last quarter of 2023. Experts point out that this increase may be related to the equipment deficit on the Ukrainian side and to weather conditions, which are more favorable for an offensive in winter than in autumn.

ISW, however, estimates that this slightly increased pace of advance by Russian forces does not mean that there is a risk of their achieving operational success.

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ISW points to Ukraine's supply problems

Supply deficits of the Ukrainian army limit its ability to conduct effective counterattacks. At the same time, Russian troops are flexible when it comes to conducting offensive operations.

If the deficit on the Ukrainian side continues and the problems with personnel are not resolved, the Russians will increasingly exploit Ukraine's weak points, writes ISW.

“The delivery of sufficient and regular defense assistance from the West and the resolution of Ukrainian human resources problems would limit the capabilities of Russian forces and enable Ukrainian troops to prevent Russian forces from making even small tactical gains, reduce Russia's offensive capabilities, and prepare for future counteroffensive operations to liberate more Ukrainian territories “- analysts emphasize.

Author:asty / prpb

Main photo source: mil.ru

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