From 6 August Ukrainian military invades territory Russia and it is repeatedly stated that its goal is to provide Ukraine with bargaining chips. According to official statements by President Volodymyr Zelensky, the Ukrainian conquests in Kursk Oblast are aimed at creating a buffer zone on the territory of the aggressor.
However, military experts doubt whether Ukraine will be able to hold these territories for much longer. One thing should be clear to Kiev. If negotiations ever take place, Russia is unlikely to withdraw from Donbas, the Zaporozhye region or Crimea without demanding an appropriate price in exchange. Peace negotiations are still very far away. However, in case they happen sooner or later, various mediators can already be considered today.
India
“India is convinced that no problem can be solved on the battlefield” – this was the slogan accompanying the visit of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi to Warsaw, before he continued on to Kiev on Friday (23 August). According to Modi, during his visit to President Volodymyr Zelensky, he wanted to explore “the prospects for a peaceful resolution of the conflict in Ukraine”.
India has never explicitly condemned the Russian invasion. It maintains close economic cooperation, for example by buying Russian arms in bulk. Since the beginning of the war, the country has even significantly increased its oil imports from Russia, thus supporting its war economy. In early July, Modi visited Moscow. The photos of a hearty embrace with Moscow's leader Vladimir Putin certainly did not make Modi's mission in Kiev any easier. Whether Modi is fit to be a go-between, after also embracing Zelensky, remains to be seen, he said. Prime Minister of India on Friday in Kiev, emphasizing that he is personally ready to take on this task.
China
China also de facto sides economically with Russia, which has gained importance as a sales market and supplier of raw materials since the beginning of the war. Beijing abstained from voting at the United Nations. Instead of criticizing Russia for its invasion, President Xi Jinping received Putin with military honors in May.
However, China is also playing a mediating role. On February 24, 2023, the first anniversary of the Russian invasion, it presented a document in which China’s position was presented in twelve points. The key issues were territorial integrity, respect for international law and protection of civilians, as well as rejection of unilateral sanctions.
China has sent a special envoy to a number of neutral countries in the Global South. It did not attend the international peace conference in Buergenstock, Switzerland, in June 2024, and Ukraine accused Beijing of trying to undermine the dialogue format.
Brazil
Following the Chinese envoy’s visit, Brazil, together with China, presented its own six-point plan in May 2024. It demanded that neither side expand the conflict area and instead that Russia and Ukraine remain in direct dialogue, exclude weapons of mass destruction, protect civilians, and exchange prisoners of war.
So far, Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has been a poor choice as a potential mediator. In 2023, he canceled meetings with both Putin and Zelensky, and was instead quoted as saying that his partners were not interested in peace at the moment. At the June peace conference in Buergenstock, where Vladimir Putin was not present, he refused to sign the final document because, he said, the conflict could not be resolved by talking to just one side.
Brazil is, however, an important partner for both sides on the diplomatic stage. When the time comes for mediation, many hope that Lula can make a difference.
Rhinitis
Not only in the Middle East conflict, but also in the war between Russia and Ukraine, Qatar has offered itself as a mediator. As the Washington Post recently reported, promising secret talks were even held in Doha until early August. However, they were thwarted by the Ukrainian offensive in Kursk Oblast. In recent years, Qatar has established itself as a mediator in numerous conflicts.
Perhaps the small but wealthy Gulf state has learned from the diplomatic conflict and boycott by other Arab and North African countries between 2017 and 2021 that it also benefits its own security to build strong relationships with a wide range of partners.
Türkiye
In the spring of 2022, Russia and Ukraine almost reached an agreement on a ceasefire during negotiations on Turkish soil. However, the massacre of civilians by Russian forces in the Ukrainian town of Bucha dashed any hopes of an end to the fighting. Turkey, thanks to its location on both sides of the Bosphorus, controls access to the Black Sea and can exert pressure on both sides of the conflict.
From July 2022 to July 2023, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan used his diplomatic capital to conclude agreements with both sides that allowed the safe transportation of Ukrainian grain by sea. Russia has prevented the extension of this mechanism. However, there remains evidence that Turkey can potentially effectively mediate between Russia and Ukraine.
South Africa, Senegal, Zambia, African Union
The mediators who may be underestimated in this conflict come from Africa, a continent that is important to both warring parties. Russia is systematically increasing its influence, especially in West and Central Africa. Ukraine is confronting this in places and is also trying to gain potential allies. Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba was in Zambia, Malawi and Mauritius at the beginning of August.
Zambian President Hakainde Hichilema has already personally engaged as a mediator once. In June 2023, he traveled with his counterparts Cyril Ramaphosa of South Africa, Macky Sall of Senegal and Azali Assoumani of the Comoros (at that time he was the chairman of the African Union) and representatives of other countries to Kyiv and St. Petersburg. The trip did not bring any tangible results at that time.
Nevertheless, several African countries remained involved, for example at the Swiss peace summit or during another round of talks in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, in early August. This is because many African countries are also interested in resolving the military conflict between Russia and Ukraine.