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Safe credit 2 percent and interest rates. Jarosław Sadowski explains whether a safe loan will pay off when interest rates fall

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A safe 2 percent loan is very popular among customers. Banks have already signed the first loan agreements. Jarosław Sadowski, chief analyst at Expander Advisors, pointed out that many people interested in a loan with subsidies are wondering how the profitability of this loan will change when interest rates fall significantly. As he noted, despite the potential decrease in the amount of the subsidy, the Secure Credit 2 percent will still be profitable.

For more than two weeks, the first banks have been submitting applications for a Secure 2 percent loan. This is a solution addressed to people up to 45 years of age who do not have and have not had their own apartment before. A safe 2 percent loan provides for subsidies to the loan for 10 years, so that the interest rate on the liability throughout this period is 2 percent plus the bank’s margin.

Secure credit 2 percent

“The Safe Credit 2 percent program is very popular. The popularity is due to the fact that such a loan is much cheaper and easier to access than a regular mortgage loan” – pointed out Jarosław Sadowski, chief analyst at Expander Advisors.

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At the same time, he noted that the cycle will probably begin this year interest rate cuts. The main reference interest rate has remained at 6.75% since September 8, 2022. “It is not known to what level rates will fall in a few years, but of course it may happen that they fall below 2 percent” – added the analyst.

PAP

In such a situation, what will happen to the subsidies to the Secure Loan 2 percent? Sadowski explained that in the case of preferential loans in the course of repayment, the decrease in interest rates will not change anything in the first 5 years. “During this time, the interest rate on the loan and the subsidy rate do not change. However, the installments will be lower and lower, because such loans are repaid in a system of decreasing installments. Therefore, the loan installment for PLN 300,000 for 30 years will fall from PLN 1,333 (first installment) to PLN 1,251 (60th installment)” – the analyst said.

Lower subsidy to the loan installment

After 5 years, the loan interest rate and the subsidy rate will be set at a new level. “If the interest rates are then lower, the subsidies will also be lower. For example, let’s assume that the interest rate on loans decreased by 5 pp. This would mean that the subsidy for a loan for PLN 300,000 for 30 years would fall from PLN 1,074 (subsidy to the 60th installment) PLN 133 (additional payment up to the 61st installment). So the decrease looks drastic” – he emphasized.

Jarosław Sadowski pointed out that in fact, the decrease in the amount of the subsidy will not change much in the attractiveness of the Secure Credit 2 percent. “The key factor for the borrower is not the amount of the subsidy, but the amount he will have to pay back every month. This, in turn, depends not only on the amount of the subsidy, but also on the amount of the ‘full installment’, i.e. the installment before deducting the subsidy from it” – he explained .

The analyst pointed out that despite the lower subsidy, such a situation would be beneficial for the borrower. “The aforementioned decrease in interest rates would significantly reduce the amount of interest, and thus the ‘full installment’. Before the change, the customer would pay PLN 1,251, which is the difference between PLN 2,326 (full installment) and PLN 1,074 (surcharge). After updating the interest rate and the level of subsidies, he would pay only PLN 1,146. The full installment would fall to PLN 1,279, and the additional payment would amount to PLN 133” – calculated Sadowski. The estimates refer to a loan of PLN 300,000 for 30 years.

How would installments and subsidies change if the interest rate decreased by 5 pp. (for a loan of PLN 300,000 for 30 years)expander

“Currently, it is hard to imagine a situation where such a level would be unattractive”

It is worth remembering that the calculations prepared by the analyst concerned changes in the amount of loan installments that are currently granted. However, the question may also arise whether in a few years, when interest rates will fall, it will still be profitable to take out new loans with a subsidy.

Sadowski reminded that the program is structured in such a way that the installment after taking into account the subsidy would be at such a level as if the interest rate on the loan was about 2 percent. “Currently, it is hard to imagine a situation where such a level would be unattractive” – ​​he assessed.

As he noted, in the period when interest rates were close to zero, the average interest rate on newly granted mortgage loans was high own contribution – over 20 percent – was about 3.8 percent. “Those with a low contribution were even higher. So it is very likely that the interest rate (adjusted by the subsidy) of about 2 percent will still be attractive” – ​​forecasts Jarosław Sadowski.

Safe 2 percent loans are to be granted until the end of 2027.

Main photo source: Shutterstock



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