Safe loan 2 percent. The housing program of Law and Justice exceeded the assumptions – vice-president of the Polish Bank Association, Agnieszka Wachnicka, on the challenge for Donald Tusk’s government


The 2 percent safe loan exceeded the expectations of the Law and Justice government. Experts point out that projections regarding not only the number of housing loans granted, but also the average loan amount have diverged. This resulted in the programme’s budget being exceeded. “There is already a shortage of PLN 5.6 billion, and contracts are still being concluded. It is a big challenge for the government to fill this hole,” said Agnieszka Wachnicka, vice-president of the Polish Bank Association, on social media.

According to data from the Credit Information Bureau, 92.6 thousand people took advantage of the Safe Credit 2 percent program. people for a total amount of PLN 27.2 billion. This is the total amount of loans granted. As indicated, the program accounted for 36 percent. the annual value of lending in the housing loan segment, and in the second half of the year alone, more than half (51%).


Safe loan 2 percent – cost

The program introduced by the Law and Justice government provides for loan subsidies for 10 years, so that the interest rate on the loan remains at 2 percent throughout this period. plus the bank’s margin. The source of financing for installment subsidies is the Government Housing Fund, which already exists in Bank Gospodarstwa Krajowego (BGK).

Accordance with the law, the maximum limit of state budget expenditure in 2023-2032 transferred to the Government Housing Fund for the implementation of the Safe Credit 2 percent program was to amount to over PLN 11.3 billion.

Vice-President of the Polish Bank Association, Agnieszka Wachnicka, pointed out that these assumptions were clearly exceeded, which will constitute a “significant challenge” for the new government. The Ministry of Development and Technology, headed by Waldemar Buda, was responsible for preparing the draft act.

“Additional payments in the amount of PLN 16.9 billion have been reserved for the contracts concluded so far (for all years). The budget assumed in the act until 2032 is PLN 11.3 billion. PLN 5.6 billion is already missing, and the contracts are still being concluded. Significant a challenge for the government to fill this hole,” Wachnicka wrote on X (formerly Twitter).

Credit intermediary Łukasz Sroczyński noted that other government assumptions had also “fallen apart”. PIS. “The OSR mentioned 10,000 loans in 2023, but a much smaller loan amount was assumed, slightly above 300,000, so the projections are also different here,” he pointed out. Economist Rafał Mundry also drew attention to the new BIK data.

In the assessment of the effects of the regulation attached to the draft act of the Ministry of Development and Technology, we could read that “the average amount of loans granted with subsidized installments in the year of the program launch (2023) will be PLN 320,000.” Meanwhile, BIK data shows that the average loan amount was PLN 405,950.

The PiS government also assumed that the annual number of Safe 2 percent loans granted in 2023-2024 would amount to a total of 50,000 loans (taking into account the launch of the program in mid-2023, it was assumed that the number of loans granted in 2023 would amount to 10,000). , and in 2024 it will reach 40,000).

Fragment of the regulatory impact assessmentSejm of the Republic of Poland

Acceptance of applications suspended

Due to exceeding the “prudential thresholds” at the beginning of January this year. BGK published announcementsin which he informed about the suspension by banks of accepting applications for housing loans under the Safe Credit 2 percent program.

Why were the expected expenses exceeded so quickly? The reason was the lack of a limit on loans granted under the government program in 2023. – This year (2023 – ed.) we have no limits. We will save as much as needed, so if 50,000 or 60,000 apply this year, everyone will receive this support – Waldemar Buda, then Minister of Development and Technology, said in July last year on Radio ZET.

Importantly, all loan applications submitted by January 2 this year. were to be considered. The program sets an upper limit on the loan amount – PLN 500,000. PLN for a single person, or PLN 600,000. PLN for a married couple or a parent with a child.

Government Donald Tusk He’s working on the new “Mieszkanie na start” programwhich is to replace the Safe 2 percent loan.

Main photo source: Shutterstock

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