South Korea. The second president removed from power in a month. Chaos in the country. The expert comments

On Friday, South Korea's National Assembly voted to impeach acting President Han Duk Su. 192 deputies in the 300-seat parliament voted in favor of the dismissal. According to the law, the duties of the head of state were taken over by Finance Minister Choi Sang Mok.

– This is an absolutely unprecedented situation. Since the turn of the 1980s and 1990s, i.e. the beginning of democracy in South Korea, the incumbent president has been impeached twice, but the acting president has never been subjected to this procedure before, says Dr. Oskar Pietrewicz from the Polish Institute of International Affairs (PISM).

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Prime Minister Han had been acting head of state since December 14, when President Jun Suk Jeol was suspended due to the imposition of martial law on December 3, which was lifted a few hours later. Within 180 days from December 14, the Constitutional Court is to examine whether there were sufficient grounds to initiate impeachment proceedings. If six of the nine judges uphold the parliament's decision, the head of state will finally leave office. On Friday, the Constitutional Court held the first preparatory hearing in this case.

The main opposition group, the progressive Democratic Party (PD), which controls parliament, decided to impeach Han because he refused to appoint the three judges it proposed to fill vacant positions on the Constitutional Court (there are currently six judges on the Constitutional Court).

The Democratic Party sought to have Jun's case heard by the full court, because it would increase the chances of the Constitutional Court upholding the parliament's decision to impeach the president.

Pietrewicz estimates that there are no prospects for a quick exit from the ongoing political crisis. – This is a situation of enormous political chaos in which there are no signs that either side will give up – he says.

According to the analyst, the dispute is not only about the legal complexities of the impeachment of Jun and Han, but also about the political calculations of both sides of the conflict. As Pietrewicz reminds, if the Constitutional Court upholds the parliament's motion, the president will be deprived of office and then early presidential elections must be held within 60 days.

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– The opposition's motivation is to start the impeachment procedure as soon as possible before the Constitutional Court in its full composition, and if the outcome is successful, to join the presidential campaign – says Pietrewicz, recalling that recently polls PD advantage increases. According to a Gallup Korea poll from mid-December, 48 percent support the group and 24 percent support the ruling conservative People's Power Party (PSN). voters.

In turn, PSN wants to delay this process – says the analyst. This may make it easier to shift the responsibility for the political chaos onto the opposition and enable the party to present itself as a force that cares about the stable functioning of the state.

– Conservatives hope that the longer this situation persists, the more it will translate into a decline in public support for the opposition – says Pietrewicz.

Additionally, conservatives can also count on the fact that during the prolonged chaos, a final verdict will be passed in one of the criminal cases against PD leader Lee Jae-myung, which would prevent him from running in the presidential elections, he emphasizes.

Pietrewicz points out that this chaos may result in state paralysis: “It may be that every week there will be a vote on the impeachment of the acting president. Gaining a simple majority (151 out of 300 deputies in total) will be a piece of cake for the opposition, which has 192 seats in parliament”.

When asked whether the current situation may threaten the country's security, the analyst replies that “it does create a sense of instability (…), but this does not mean that South Korea is now a defenseless country against threats.”

– The state functions because it is a big political fight at the very top, but lower-level officials act as they should – he says. Additionally, as he notes, the Americans are trying to emphasize that they are investing in the alliance with South Korea, even in such difficult circumstances.

On Friday, shortly after taking power, Choi announced that South Korean troops were on high alert due to the increasing risk of provocation from North Korea.

However, the analyst doubts that North Korea tried to take advantage of the destabilization in Seoul to launch a large-scale provocation against South Korea. – Which does not mean that North Korea will not, for example, conduct some missile tests, although not necessarily because of the situation in South Korea, but because the presidency (in USA) will soon take over as president Donald Trump – he notes.

– Perhaps the North Koreans will decide that a kind of political welcome to the new president could be a missile test, which is to prove that a further step has been taken in the development of nuclear and missile potential – says the analyst.