Based on data from real receipts from purchases in smaller stores stores it follows that in July Butter prices were as much as 18.9 percent higher than a year ago. A 200-gram cube (82 percent fat) cost an average of PLN 6.73 (this is an annualized estimate, because compared to June, butter in our report fell by almost 9.5 percent).
What do you see on receipts? Butter up, sugar down
Sugar prices, on the other hand, dropped significantly, and the scale of this movement was much stronger than in the case of butter. A kilogram cost an average of PLN 3.95, which means a decrease of 30.7% compared to July 2023 (and 11.8% compared to June 2024). Both sugar and butter are products that fluctuate greatly in price. Fats can generally be included in this group – we remember how strongly oil prices shot up after the outbreak of the war in Ukraine. In our basket, oil (sunflower) fell by 10.7% year-on-year in July.
In terms of the strongest price movements, orange juice saw a significant increase, up 18.8%, some sweets – in our case primarily so-called impulse wafers (i.e. packed one at a time) – up 16.8%, but also chocolate and cookies (8% each), cucumbers and apples also saw a jump – up 19% and 27.2% respectively. Eggs got cheaper – up 9.2%.
What’s next for food prices?
How do we know all this? Gazeta.pl, together with the Handelextra.pl portal and based on CMR data, tracks prices in small-format stores, 300 square meters of surface area. So the so-called residential ones, often located closest to the customers' place of residence. We check changes concerning slightly over 30 products, from a database of real receipts, for real purchases made.
We take into account the leading brand of a given product (based on popularity statistics in the sales structure), prices are averaged for the country. Where such a leading brand cannot be distinguished (as in the case of bread, sold locally), we compare products with the same parameters. We also take into account promotions. Our report should not therefore be compared with the CSO data on inflation, which is the most comprehensive – the Office tracks over 230 thousand prices month after month. We explain how exactly it does it at THIS LINK.
Last week, the Central Statistical Office published its full report July CPI inflation report. According to Pekao SA experts, these data show that “the process of gradual transfer of the higher VAT rate to food prices in the largest discount stores”. And what next? It will continue to be more expensive, among other things due to the weather. “The coming months will bring a gradual rebound in food prices due to unfavourable weather conditions in the country, which will limit the supply of these products and create pressure on the increase in their prices” – believe Pekao economists. Their colleagues from PKO BP also believe that food will become more expensive. “We expect food inflation in August to increase to approx. 4% y/y and to remain at this level until the end of the year” – they write (in July food inflation, i.e. the increase in total food prices, amounted to 3.2%.
Other data from the Central Statistical Office may also indicate an increase in food prices. At the end of July, it published the report “Preliminary estimate of the main agricultural and horticultural crops1 in 2024”. The Central Statistical Office estimates that the harvest of basic cereals (winter and spring wheat, rye, winter and spring barley, oats, winter and spring triticale) with cereal mixtures will be about 4 percent lower this year (to amount to 25.6 million tons). Farmers will also harvest less rape and turnip rape – about 9 percent. There will be less fruit from trees – by 17 percent – and from shrubs – by 11 percent. The harvest of field vegetables is to be positive, the Polish Farmers are expected to harvest 3.8 million tonnes, which is 2 percent more than a year ago.
Why are the harvests worse? Among the negative factors, the Central Statistical Office lists April frosts, too little rain at the end of April and in May, and extreme weather phenomena – storms, hailstorms and tempests combined with strong the wind.