In 2011, when the Arab Spring shook the Middle East, leading to the fall of autocrats in Tunisia, Egypt and Libya and mass protests in Yemen, Bahrain and Syria, epitaphs began to be written for the Assad dynasty. However, Iran, Lebanese Hezbollah and Russia came to the rescue of the family that took over Syria for decades. Now that the allies have “let their guard down”, the illusion of the Syrian regime's triumph in the bloody civil war has disappeared. “Nothing – neither regimes nor leaders – lasts forever,” writes CNN.
As the station points out, in the last few years the war between the corrupt and brutal regime in Damascus and the divided, often radical opposition has come to a standstill.
“Once rejected by other Arab autocrats, Bashar al-Assad has gradually regained the dubious respect in which Arab regimes hold each other,” CNN writes.
Many thought that the bloody civil war in Syria finally came to an end, a Bashar al-Assad he emerged victorious. This illusion was widespread even though large parts of the country were still controlled by Kurdish militias (backed by the US) and Sunni factions (backed by Turkey), Hezbollah, Iran and Russia continued to support the regime in Damascus, United States controlled areas in eastern Syria, Israel carried out air attacks “whenever and wherever he saw fit” a Islamic Statealthough it was defeated, continued to commit terrorist attacks, the station notes.
“The fact that the government in Damascus did not fall seemed an achievement in itself,” writes CNN. As he adds, it was only an illusion of victory.
Bashar al-Assad SANA HANDOUT/PAP/EPA
Rebel offensive
An illusion that was shattered when on Wednesday, rebels opposed to the regime – led by the jihadist militia Hayat Tahrir al-Sham – unexpectedly launched an offensive from Idlib province. In just 72 hours they reached the center of Aleppo. Then, with a force numbering “thousands of fighters”, encountering almost no resistance from government forces, they occupied towns and villages in Hama province.
On Saturday evening, as rebels approached the city of Hama, Syrian social media was flooded with reports of the collapse of government forces in the northern part of the country. It was in Hama, in early 1982, that Bashar's father – Hafez al-Assad – brutally suppressed the uprising of the Muslim Brothers. The province was under the rule of rebel forces until 2016, but then they were driven out by the Syrian army.
In his first public statement since the beginning of the offensive, Bashar al-Assad announced that Syria would continue to “defend its stability and territorial integrity against terrorists and their supporters” and declared that the rebels would soon be defeated.
The smoldering civil conflict has reignited.
The allies let their guard down
Why did the rebels manage to break the resistance of government forces in just a few days? According to CNN, Syria's key allies – Russia, Iran and Hezbollah – have let their guard down under pressure.
The station notes that Hezbollah, which played a key role in strengthening the Syrian regime in the darkest days of the civil war, withdrew most of its forces after October 7, 2023 Lebanonto fight Israel. Shortly thereafter, Israel retaliated by eliminating most of the organization's old leadership, drastically weakening it.
Bashar al-Assad and Vladimir Putin met in MoscowPAP/EPA/VLADIMIR GERDO / SPUTNIK / KREMLIN POOL
Russia, which also significantly supported the government in Damascus during the war by sending its troops and planes to Syria, is now preoccupied with war in Ukrainewhich is currently Moscow's “top priority,” CNN notes.
Iran is also in a more difficult situation. Iranian advisers and Iranian bases in Syria have been repeatedly attacked by Israeli forces over the past year.
Nothing lasts forever
CNN also highlights the inexorable fate of long-lived regimes. “The Assad dynasty has been in power for 53 years, since 1971. Although its survival is already an achievement, it has nothing else to boast about,” he writes. .
Pervasive corruption and mismanagement were undermining the Syrian economy even before the outbreak of civil war in 2011. Since then, life for the average Syrian has become even worse. The war claimed hundreds of thousands of lives, and millions were forced to leave their homes, the station notes.
Over the course of five decades, the Assad dynasty has endured many internal and external blows. “However, nothing – neither regimes nor leaders – lasts forever. Everything comes to an end,” CNN says.
Main photo source: SANA HANDOUT/PAP/EPA