The Assad regime has fallen. What about Russian bases in Syria? Analysis

The Syrian opposition has taken full control of the cities of Tartus and Latakia, where there are two Russian military bases: an air base at the Humeimim airport and a naval base in the port of Tartus. Russian military personnel remain on the territory Syria and there are several thousand of them there. Although the new regime in Damascus does not carry out attacks on these bases, it is unlikely that it will agree to them remaining there, predicts an analysis by the independent Russian website Mediazona.

It is not known what the evacuation of Russian troops from Syria will look like. Problems may arise with Russian mercenary formations in Africa that were once part of the Wagner Group. Their supplies were directly dependent on Russian bases in Syria, notes Mediazona.

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Russian forces appeared in Syria in 2015, when President Vladimir Putin decided to support the regime of Bashar al-Assad in the fight against “terrorist groups”, including the so-called Islamic State. At that time, the West criticized Russia because most of the airstrikes carried out by the Russian air force were aimed at the Syrian opposition.

According to the agreement signed by Assad in 2017, the Russian army could stay at the Humeimim airport and the port of Tartus until 2066. Assad, who had ruled the country for 24 years, lost power within two weeks and found refuge in Russia.

– Given the current policy of the new Syrian regime, taking into account the “rich” history of Russia's relations with the Syrian opposition, primarily the bombings aimed against it, it is unlikely that the new government will tolerate the presence of Russian bases on its territory – an expert on Syrian affairs told Mediazona Kirill Mikhailov. In his opinion, withdrawing Russian troops now would be the most appropriate, “best of all bad decisions” that the Kremlin can make. And then Russia will have to forget about military bases and transshipment points on Syrian territory, probably for several dozen years, Mikhailov said.

Mediazona cites forecasts from the Fighterbomber Telegram channel, affiliated with the Russian Air Force, which were “extremely pessimistic about the prospect of maintaining bases in Syria.” Fighterbomber wrote that the new authorities in Damascus have “zero” need to maintain them. “Our army was present throughout Syria. Several thousand people and several dozen pieces of equipment. A few days ago, they all moved beyond the mountains, closer to the sea, where they are now waiting for further so-called deployment,” wrote Fighterbomber. The author of this channel is former military pilot Ilya Tumanov, who confessed in Monday's entry that he once fought in Syria.

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The BBC's Russian section recalled that the Russian presence in Syria was not limited to the Humayim base and the port of Tartus. The Russians also used the largest air base of the Syrian Air Force – T-4 in Homs province. Russian troops have also been deployed to multiple checkpoints in Rojava, a region in northeastern Syria controlled by Kurdish forces. It is also likely that Russian forces were also stationed in Deir ez-Zor muhafaz in western Syria, as well as in the Golan Heights, near the Israeli-Syrian border, the BBC added.

Another question facing the authorities in the Kremlin is how to evacuate soldiers and equipment from Syria, writes Mediazona. After the military invasion began Ukraine Türkiye closed the passage through the Bosphorus and Dardanelles straits for the Russian fleet. Its ships – as previously predicted by Dara Massicot, an expert on Russia and Eurasia at the American think tank, the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace – will be forced to “make a very long voyage to the ports of the Baltic Fleet or try to find a temporary deployment near a limited number of ports in Libya, Sudan or Algeria”.

The evacuation of the Humeimim air base would, in turn, require hundreds of flights by Il-76 and An-124 transport aircraft. Dara Massicot noted that “when Russian troops deployed to Syria in 2015, they conducted almost 300 sorties in just two weeks.”

The Fighterbomber channel wrote earlier that “in order for our planes to fly somewhere, we must ask for permission from the countries whose airspace they fly over.” “You can wait for this for weeks,” he predicted.

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The evacuation of military personnel from Humeim will likely require hundreds of An-124 and Il-76 flights in a very short period of time. In turn, Russian ships will be forced to sail for a long time through the Mediterranean Sea, the Strait of Gibraltar, around Europe, and then either to Baltic Seaor to northern ports through the Norwegian Sea and the Barents Sea – said the BBC, adding that the evacuation of Russian troops from Syria will be a “very expensive and large-scale” operation. According to the BBC, Russia needed military bases in Syria not only to support the Assad regime. They ensured Russia's military presence in the Middle East and also enabled the flow of people and cargo to Africa, where Russia has had many interests in recent years.

Kirill Mikhailov also believes that the loss of the base in Humaymi significantly limits Russian influence in the Middle East and also calls into question Russian influence in Africa. – Both logistical and political issues have no clear solution yet. This does not mean that the entire architecture of Russia's presence in Africa will collapse tomorrow, but at least it has become a big question mark, Mikhailov said.