The automotive industry in Poland may be one of the most affected by Donald Trump's customs. Polish Economic Institute estimates that The export of the automotive sector can drop by as much as 1.5 percent. Only the transport sector and mining will get tired more through the United States. Let us remind you that before the American president announced a 20 % duties to the European Union, he announced a 25 % duties on cars and car parts. The European Commission is already preparing retaliation in a similar amount.
The automotive industry is at risk. However, there is hope
Automotive can therefore be one of the largest losers in the trade war. The Polish authorities are also aware of this. This is why Prime Minister Donald Tusk and Minister of Finance Andrzej Domański will meet with representatives of the automotive industry On Tuesday (April 8). The theme of the meeting is, of course, the situation of the automotive industry after the introduction of new duties by USA. – I think that this will be limited only to the words of support, not specific moves, because neither prime ministerneither I nor the car industry know what it all will happen to. At the moment, it would probably be a lack of reason to propose specific solutions, since it is not known what the real threats are – says in an interview with Next.gazeta.pl an analyst DI Xelion Piotr Kuczyński. He emphasized that it is not really known what customs rates will be, because “everything is smooth”.
– For now, Trump does not seem to go away, although congressmen can force him to do so. As for any negotiations or such activities, we can see the first signals because he sent his two representatives to negotiations with Japan. That is why today we have increases in the markets – notes the analyst. For example The Nikkei 225 Japanese index is growing by over 6 percent. Generally, however, apart from Toyota, whose shares go up by 1.08 percent, automotive concerns from Japan are lost. Mitsubishi shares fall by about 8 percent, Mazda by 6.7 percent, Nissan by 7.4 percent And Honda by 4.1 percent
Exemptions are coming? Threatened employees, but not the economy
Although Donald Trump admitted that “negotiations with other stalls will start immediately”, but for now Japan is an exception, so it should be assumed that the duties in the announced reality will come into force, and this will clearly affect the automotive industry. – If the negotiations do not happen, American and German companies producing cars will suffer. Will be able to sell their products in the United States after prices 20 or 25 percent higher This will affect the lower demand for components produced in Poland, such as batteries. The industry itself, looking from today's perspective, is doomed to some problems such as release of part of the crew, lowering wages Can other movements that companies can take to protect themselves from the breakdown in production. At the same time, they have to give themselves a chance for further growth, when these duties and restrictions are lifted or alleviated – says Piotr Kuczyński. This is really alerting the vision, because the automotive industry gives Poland a job of about 400,000. to people.
People employed in factories and their families may feel threatened
– adds the analyst.
However, you can look at it from a different perspective and treat it as an opportunity. – It may turn out that if these customs ideas of Donald Trump actually realize, they will benefit. Oil prices may fall, dollar It will weaken and companies around the world will have a problem with sales in the USA. In this situation, they will be looking for new markets, including in Poland, where they can locate part of their production. This can cause an increase in competition and lower prices – notes the Di Xelion analyst.
Exactly 4.9 percent In 2024, Polish exports to the USA were automotive export. Poland ranks seventh in the world in the export of car parts and the second in the European Union. This industry is currently responsible for 8 percent. GDP and this is the second largest sector in Poland in terms of turnover. Despite this, Piotr Kuczyński reassures that the duties imposed on the automotive industry will have a “minimum impact, or rather no” on the entire economy. – From today's perspective I do not see a threat – he adds. The Polish Economic Institute estimatedthat the 25 % automotive duty will cause a decrease in Polish GDP by 0.12 percent In turn, in the case of additional retaliation duties imposed on motoring from the United States throughout the world, the Polish GDP will reach 0.15 percent.