The average salary in Poland was in May PLN 8670.51 – the Central Statistical Office said on Monday. If you wanted to simplify a lot, one could write that so much on average they earned employed in Poland last month. Only that it would be too simplified. So what does that mean?
Firstlyof course it is a salary gross (“on hand” in the case of an employment contract – counting also in general, because there are several variables, such as the issue of belonging to PPK – this gives about PLN 6,240). Secondlywe are talking about the sector enterprises – published today by Central The data relate to wages in companies, so they do not take into account budget sector employees (such as nurses or teachers). Thirdlyit's about employing companies at least 10 peopleSo the smallest companies are not taken into account here. Total, the CSO report refers to about 40 percent. Polish labor market.
New GUS data. Salaries are growing, although more slowly
However, it is still valuable. Economists and analysts focus not so much on the amount as on wage dynamics – They look if the average salaries are growing or falling and falling. This allows you to estimate, for example, the impact of so -called wage pressure – not only on the market, but also on inflation. After all, if we start (on average, of course) to earn a lot more, because we may want to spend more. And such an increased demand for goods and services can lead to the fact that sellers recognize that there is a lifting space prices.
And inflation, in turn, is very careful about Poland bank Central and the Monetary Policy Council operating within it. Inflation is the main factor taken into account when deciding, whether the interest rates should be reducedlift or stop with movement – more about that in a moment.
Importantly, even though Data from the National Economy (i.e. already taking into account smaller companies and budget), including the closest “real” median's salary, show similar growth dynamics. Although the very level of such a median is clearly lower (by about one -fifth). However, it is a trend.
So average The salary in May increased by 8.4 percent. year on year. Slower than expected (the consensus of forecasts was 8.8 percent), and also clearly slower than a month earlier (in April wages increased by 9.3 percent). Last year, wages grew at a double -digit rate, including much slower and it seems that April was a one -time jump up, and the tendency goes in the opposite direction. “Dynamics of 8.4 percent is almost exactly the average of the last 5 months of this year. There will be jumps in one side, but There is only one trend: down” – MBank experts commented. Similarly, other experts think – as a rule, salaries will grow more slowly.
On a monthly basisi.e. in May compared to April, The salaries have fallen And by as much as 4.1 percent – According to PKO BP “the scale of the estate was deeper than the seasonal pattern would indicate.” If you look at the amounts of remuneration, in May the average salary decreased to the above -mentioned PLN 8,670.51 gross from PLN 9045.11 a month earlier. As the CSO explains, the wages then conquered one -off payments (such as bonuses or awards).
Who earns the most?
In May, the highest average salaries were employed in the PKD section (this division is used by the Central Statistical Office in his reports) “Information and communication” (e.g. programmers include it) – PLN 14,551.10 gross. In second place were employees of the “Professional, scientific and technical activity” department (including legal activities and tax consultancy) – PLN 11,589.39 gross. The third place was the “Production and supply of electricity, gas, water vapor and hot water” – with an average salary of PLN 11,336.73 gross, and right behind it on (only) the fourth “mining and extraction” – PLN 11,273.35.
On the other side of the list were employed in the section “accommodation and gastronomy” with an average salary PLN 6406.35 grossother service activities – PLN 6808.98 and “Administration and supporting activities” – PLN 7086.33 gross.
If you look at the growth rate, then the salaries increased particularly in industrial processing – by 8.8 percent. year on year and transport – by 9.9 percent (Especially, because we are talking about industries with high share in employment). Against this background, mining remuneration (+3.3 percent), real estate market (+5.6 percent) and trade (+5.9 percent) grew poorly.
How does this relate to the MPC?
Dynamically growing remuneration was an argument for the Monetary Policy Council for non -percentage of interest rates. As we explained above, a strong increase in wages can affect the conquest of the inflation indicator. Slowing down this trend, and even reversing its direction (average salaries are still growing, although more and more slowly) It can make the MPC more willing to lower your feet. Of course, this is only one of the factors, but quite important.
Despite everything, There is no reason to count on cutting at the next meeting in July. And such a scenario was drawn as likely after the recent statements of the council members, including its chairman Adam Glapiński. Factors were indicated as the risk of lack of fiscal strengthening (i.e. the government will not try to reduce expenses and raise taxes). In addition, the tension in the Middle East between Israel and Iran with US interference conquer (not violently, but still) oil prices, which can also increase inflation and be another argument for the MPC for the Pause. In August, the MPC is on vacation, so it will probably not return to considering interest rate reductions only in September.