In 2024, Germany's gross domestic product will shrink by 0.1%. – estimates the European Commission in the autumn economic forecasts published on Friday (November 15, 2024). In May, the EC assumed that the European Union's largest economy would grow slightly – by 0.1%. GDP. In 2025, Germany may be in the black, with growth of 0.7%. GDP, but this will be the lowest growth in the zone euro. For the next year, 2026, the EC assumes an increase of 1.3%. GDP.
He has to cope much better Poland economy for which the EC raised its GDP growth forecast to 3%. this year and 3.6 percent in 2025. May estimates were for growth of 2.8%. in 2024 and 3.4 percent next year. Inflation is expected to be 3.8 percent. this year and 4.7 percent in 2025, which will be a consequence of frostbite prices energy and excise tax increases – estimates the EC. Unemployment will remain below 3%.
Slow recovery of the economy. This will be supported by falling inflation and lower unemployment
The Commission's forecast for the euro zone remains unchanged – growth of 0.8%. this year and 1.3 percent next year. Brussels also expects inflation to weaken further to 2.4%. this year, and 2.1 percent in 2025. This means that this indicator is approaching the European inflation target Bank Central Committee (ECB).
– The European economy is recovering slowly, said EU Economic Commissioner Paolo Gentiloni. – Growth should gradually accelerate in the coming two years – he added. The recovery should be supported by a decline in inflation and low unemployment, as well as an increase in private consumption and investment.
Geopolitical uncertainty. War in Ukraine, conflict in the Middle East and Donald Trump
At the same time, Brussels emphasizes that the actual economic situation will be influenced by geopolitical challenges and tensions, such as the war in Ukraine and the conflict in the Middle East, which may be important for Europe's energy supply. In addition, there is also uncertainty related to the return of Donald Trump to the White House, who announced a protectionist course towards Europe. At the same time, EU countries will have to reconcile the policy of reducing debt levels with efforts to support economic growth.
RTR, AFP/ viewer
The article comes from the website Deutsche Welle.