The Fitch rating agency raised its GDP growth forecast for Poland in 2021 to 5.7 percent, and left the estimate of 4.5 percent for 2022, according to the Fitch report published on Thursday.
“The Polish economy has rebounded strongly, with GDP rising to pre-pandemic levels, which has not yet been recorded by the main economies of the euro area. Stronger than expected GDP growth in Q2 (…) and upward revision of Q1 data (.. .) also means a revision of our forecasts for 2021 to 5.7% from 4.4%. ” – it was written.
Fitch refers to the June forecasting round, while in the latest available report of the rating agency on Poland from August 27 it was written that Fitch had already raised the Polish GDP growth forecast to 5.2 percent. from 4.4%, with an estimate of 4.5%. and 3.8 percent for 2022 and 2023 (unchanged in the latest round).
“Consumption is growing strongly, but the investment situation is more volatile. The relaxation of the restrictions in May supports the recovery of domestic demand, and the latest readings of high-frequency indicators suggest that the ‘momentum’ of growth in the second half of 2021 will be sustained. (…) Consumers’ moods also gradually are recovering, although research suggests that households’ intentions to buy more in the coming year remain below pre-crisis levels. Disruptions in supply chains and the growing presence of the delta variant may pose challenges to the economy for the future, “the report wrote on Thursday.
An increase in interest rates
Fitch forecasts an interest rate hike by the NBP by 15 bp. by the end of this year and two more, 25 bp. in 2022 (the reference rate at 0.75 percent at the end of next year), with CPI inflation at the end of 2021 at 4.8 percent. and 3.5 percent at the end of 2022
At the end of August, the Fitch agency confirmed Poland’s long-term foreign currency rating at “A-” with a stable outlook.
On October 1, Poland’s credit rating will be examined by S&P Global Ratings and on October 29 by Moody’s.
Out of the three largest rating agencies, Moody’s scores the highest for Poland’s creditworthiness – at the “A2” level. Poland’s rating according to Fitch and S&P is “A-“, one level lower than Moody’s. The prospects of all assessments are stable.
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