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The flow of “definite heat” will be interrupted. The forecast shows cooling again

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Our country is located in the area of ​​the so-called “warm section of the lowlands” – said tvnmeteo.pl presenter Tomasz Wasilewski. The cooperation of two atmospheric fronts causes that air masses from the south-west of Europe flow to Poland, which gives us a pleasant aura. However, the forecast for the next few days shows a change in the weather and cooling.

As the presenter of tvnmeteo.pl Tomasz Wasilewski explained, the aura in our country is governed by low pressure, the center of which is located over southern Norway. Poland found itself in its area, called the “warm section of the lowlands”.

We are between two weather fronts. One is to the west of our borders, this is a cold atmospheric front, and there is another – a warm one over Scandinavia. If we look at this “quarter”, this is the warm part of the low, and we get air from the south-west in it today. And that’s why we’re forecasting 16 degrees, just like yesterday. This is definitely warm – he told TVN24.

Behind the cold front, another air mass is already moving in – from the northwest. This will result in lower temperatures and rainfall.

– We will feel this cooling most on Tuesday. Because then this cooler air will literally reach us for a moment and then the temperature will drop. But on Wednesday and Thursday it will rise again, approaching 20 degrees in the south of the country, Wasilewski noted.

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The bar situation in Europetvnmeteo.pl

What causes discrepancies in forecasts

The presenter also revealed how long-term forecasts are made and why they sometimes play pranks. On the air, he presented data from a meteorological model, assuming 20 different possibilities.

– This is the temperature forecast for Warsaw until March 29, which is just over a week. […] These are 20 scenarios that are very consistent at first – these lines all overlap at first. By all scenarios – for example, tomorrow will be around 15 degrees. However, from the fifth, sixth, seventh day, this discrepancy between the forecasts is huge – he said.

For example, one of the current scenarios indicates that on March 29 temperature in Warsaw can be as low as -2 degrees Celsius. According to another possibility of the scenario, on the same day and in the same city, the thermometers may show 13 degrees. – So this discrepancy is 15 degrees and with each subsequent day these discrepancies increase – he described.

Discrepancies in forecasts for the next daystvnmeteo.pl

“The calculations are extremely difficult”

Wasilewski noted that in long-term forecasts it is important to calculate the average of the data indicated by the models, and then assess which of them is the most probable.

– This is because, depending on what we put into this model at the beginning, what kind of dataset it has, the result of the calculations is very different – he said. – You have thousands of world weather observations. One of these observations says it’s 29 degrees out there somewhere. But you take that temperature or you post the measurement an hour later and it’s 29.1 degrees. And this will have a huge impact on how the calculation of the weather will look like in your part of the world hundreds or thousands of kilometers away. So the chaos that this atmosphere is and the fact that it’s completely unpredictable, plus these thousands of observations, very small differences in these initial conditions of the model, result in the fact that they [wyniki – przyp. red.] are very often divergent.

According to the presenter, it can be compared to everyday life.

– You have a scenario for the day, but then it becomes several scenarios, the further from that starting point. It’s the same with the weather. Calculations are extremely difficult. This is not an excuse or an attempt to shield oneself – hence the huge differences in forecasts, and sometimes surprising twists and turns, also in these charts and temperature forecasts – summed up Wasilewski.

You can watch the whole conversation with Tomasz Wasilewski here:

Tomasz Wasilewski about the weather in Poland and Europetvnmeteo.pl

Main photo source: Shutterstock/tvnmeteo.pl



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