The heat killed 47,000 people. The death toll could have been even higher.

Over a large part of Europe the heat wave continueswhich is slowly moving to Poland. The heat is not only oppressive, but also deadly. This is clearly demonstrated by the results of a study published Monday in the journal “Nature Medicine.”

Scientists from the Barcelona Institute for Global Health (ISGlobal) estimated the number of premature deaths based on data on the relationship between air temperature and mortality. They came from 823 regions in 35 countries and were collected between 2015 and 2019. The data was used to create an epidemiological model and estimate how many premature deaths in 2023 could be caused by heat.

Scientists estimated the number of premature deaths at 47,690 – the second highest in the period 2015-2023. More were recorded only in 2022, when heatwaves claimed the lives of about 70,000 people. The mortality rate due to heatwaves was highest in Greece, at 393 deaths per million. Next in line were Bulgaria (229 deaths per million), Italy (209 deaths per million) and Spain (175 deaths per million). In Poland, the rate was much lower, at 16 deaths per million.

Premature deaths were particularly high among women and people over the age of 80. The authors of the paper pointed out that the mortality rate in 2023 would have been 80 percent higher if humans had not adapted to rising temperatures over the past two decades – in 2004, similar heat waves would have killed more than 85,000 people.

Elisa Gallo, an environmental epidemiologist at ISGlobal and the lead author of the study, told the Guardian that “the number of heat-related deaths is still too high,” adding that “Europe is warming twice as fast as the global average.”

– Our results show that this century has seen a process of social adaptation to heat that has dramatically reduced vulnerability and mortality in recent summers, mainly among older people – she explained. – We are less exposed to heat than at the beginning of the century, probably due to general socio-economic progress, behavioral changes and the implementation of public health measures – she added.

The report was released as firefighters battled forest fires on the outskirts of Athens, France issued heat warnings and Britain recorded what was likely its hottest day of the year. Globally, 2023 was the warmest year on record for the world and the second warmest in Europe, according to a new report. Scientists expect 2024 to take its place in the rankings.