We have never had so many retirees. At the end of last year, there were 7.266 million of them, over 126,000 more than at the end of the previous year. The graphic below shows the change in the number of retirees over nearly a quarter of a century. After a periodic decline in 2021-2022 (COVID?), they started to increase again last year. In 2020, they constituted approximately 12%. Poland's population, in 2023 already 19.3 percent – that is, one fifth of the country's population.
The country of old people. Where do retirees live?
And for now, there will only be more and more older people. – Demographic forecasts indicate that this trend will continue, probably for the next four decades. Only after 2060, when the demographic boom of people born in the early 1980s will begin to die out, will the number of retirees slowly decrease – says prof. Paweł Strzelecki, deputy director of the Institute of Statistics and Demography of the Warsaw School of Economics.
Where are the most retirees? On the map below, they are counted together with pensioners, but it does not change the picture of the situation much. In absolute numbers, the largest number of elderly people live in the most populated voivodeships – Masovian (984.8 thousand) and Silesian (867.3 thousand). However, if we look at the percentage of such people in the total population, it looks slightly different. In this case, the Central Statistical Office provides only total data regarding both retirees and disability pensioners, although the share of the latter is much smaller. Thus, the largest percentage (that is, it can be assumed that they are “oldest”) are in the following voivodeships: Silesia, Łódź, Świętokrzyskie, Lublin, Kuyavian-Pomeranian and Podlaskie (about one quarter each). The “youngest” ones are mainly in the Pomeranian Voivodeship, as well as in the Małopolska and Masovian Voivodeships.
These differences result from internal migrations from years ago. Mainly to large agglomerations and where there was work (Silesia). Pomerania was also attracted to it due to its dynamically developing economy. And it is still like that, for example, migrants from Ukraine also willingly choose this region, and these are mostly young people.
The Holy Grail – fertility
We have a negative natural increase (more of us die than are born), but the most disturbing thing may be the fertility rate. It shows how many children an average woman will give birth to during her lifetime. In 2023 it was 1.16. This is drastically insufficient to ensure the so-called replacement of generations – this requires a fertility rate of approximately 2.1. Therefore, for years, and probably still is, the attention of political decision-makers and many experts focused on fertility.
The interest in fertility was largely related to the fact that the state's demographic policy mainly focused on it, which was clearly shown in the document 'Demographic Strategy 2040'. A higher fertility rate was seen as such a holy grail. It was a bit like thinking: let's just change this, and the rest of the consequences of the aging population will find their own solution
– says prof. Paweł Strzelecki. Meanwhile, it's not that simple. Increasing fertility alone will not bring spectacular demographic effects if there are too few mothers who could give birth to them. And there are much fewer women in their 20s and 30s now than there were two decades ago, when the baby boomers came of age. And there will be fewer and fewer of them. As a side note, let us point out that the policy of increasing the fertility rate through financial transfers has not turned out to be a success.
– I assume that if there is not much that can be done about fertility and it is a big problem in the world in general, then we need to focus on what we can and should prepare for. And we can change social policy or the economy to make it better adapted to an aging society, says the expert.
If we were to answer the question from a purely mathematical point of view as to what influences the stabilization of the population and its structure in the very long term, it is, of course, fertility. It's just that for us, living here and now, with the prospect of retirement in less than half a century, the aging of society will be a fact regardless of the fertility rate and will have an individual dimension. It will be related to what our quality of life will look like after retirement
– emphasizes prof. Shooting.
How do retirees live?
The data from the Central Statistical Office also partly reflect what this quality looks like now. Last year, ZUS spent a total of over PLN 250 billion on pensions – exactly PLN 251.877 billion, almost 20 percent. more than a year earlier. The average pension amounted to PLN 3,389.49, by 17.3%. more than a year earlier. The highest benefits were paid in the Silesian Voivodeship (average PLN 3,950.46), and the lowest in the Podkarpackie Voivodeship (PLN 3,058.30). Here is the full list of voivodeships:
- Lower Silesia: PLN 3,425.24
- Kuyavian-Pomeranian Voivodeship: PLN 3,206.54
- Lubelskie: PLN 3,078.49
- Łódź Voivodeship: PLN 3,183.19
- Małopolskie: PLN 3,314.37
- Masovian Voivodeship: PLN 3,578.40
- Opole Voivodeship: PLN 3,339.34
- Podkarpackie: PLN 3,058.30
- Podlaskie: PLN 3,082.98
- Pomeranian Voivodeship: PLN 3,381.69
- Silesia: PLN 3,950.46
- Świętokrzyskie: PLN 3,059.42
- Warmian-Masurian Voivodeship: PLN 3,147.35
- Greater Poland: PLN 3,349.05
- West Pomeranian Voivodeship: PLN 3,276.69.
It looks much weaker if you look at farmers' benefits. The average pension from KRUS last year was PLN 1,859.14. Only in two voivodeships did it exceed 2,000. PLN – in the Lubusz and Silesian voivodeships. On the other side of the scale there are benefits for uniformed officers and justice workers. On average, pension from Ministry of National Defense amounted to PLN 5,281.05, from the Ministry of Justice PLN 5,641.81, and from the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Administration PLN 5,359.56.
In the report, the Central Statistical Office provides a few more interesting facts regarding ZUS (non-agricultural) benefits, for example it lists several professions. Thus, miners' pensions were on average PLN 6,276.81, teachers' pensions – PLN 3,554.72, railway workers' pensions – PLN 2,983.91, and self-employed persons – PLN 2,725.34 (and here the issue of the amount of contributions paid arises).
How does this compare to the rest of society? Since 2013, the ratio of the average pension (excluding KRUS) to the average salary (in the national economy, this is a broad measure) has gradually decreased, but last year it increased quite significantly and amounted to 55.9%. Monthly disposable income (i.e. how much is left to spend after paying permanent liabilities, such as taxes and insurance contributions) per person in retiree households amounted to PLN 2,615.90 (increased by 4.3%), and for all households in In Poland it is PLN 2,678.30 (increased by 2.1%). The difference is only PLN 62.4. This is due to the fact that retirees' households are smaller and they usually do not have people who do not earn any income (such as children) to support.
Data, including from the Central Statistical Office, show that the current income situation of retirees is not as bad as it is often perceived. The replacement rate, i.e. the ratio of the pension to the last salary, is still relatively high – although it is decreasing and may drop to below 30% in the future. However, it is worth remembering that politicians have interfered with these adjustments in the past. Just mention the changes in the indexation of benefits, the 13th and 14th pensions. This is also a topic related to political economy – a growing group of retirees is also a growing group of potential voters
– notes prof. Paweł Strzelecki. – These gifts for retirees at the end may lead to more and more retirees having a relatively high minimum benefit. And the minimum subsidy is financed by taxeswhich means it will burden subsequent young, working generations – he adds.
The replacement rate mentioned by the expert is currently approximately 50%. – that is, current retirees receive about half of their last salary. However, it will decrease and for current 40-year-olds it may be as little as 30 or even 25 percent. – as long as nothing changes, e.g. retirement age.
Taboo topic
Currently, the retirement age in Poland is 60 for women and 65 for men. The previous government reversed the reform that gradually raised this age, and it seems that this is still a politically untouchable topic for now. However, as of mid-last year, Poland is the only EU country where there will be neither an increase in the retirement age nor an equal retirement age for women and men (and women's pensions are, on average, drastically lower than men's, due to lower contributions, breaks in contributions for the birth and upbringing of children and longer life expectancy). There are more and more retirees and they are generally living longer, which also affects the amount of benefits. – The amount of pensions will adjust downwards, because the expected number of months of further life in retirement is in the denominator of the formula calculating the amount of the benefit – emphasizes prof. SGH.
Retirement age has become a taboo topic, but discussions about extending the life course of work and minimum levels of benefits will need to emerge. The current incentives to delay retirement through a pension formula that increases benefits for people who take longer to contribute and take benefits for a shorter period will no longer work if more and more people continue to receive the same minimum benefit regardless of when they retire.
– says Strzelecki.
The issue of the amount of benefits is one thing, another is other expenses that increase with the increasing age of society. First of all, in the field of health care, on which Poland still spends relatively little in relation to GDP. The more elderly people there are in society, the more we have to spend on expensive medical treatments, for example. In addition, there is also the issue of caring for the elderly, which may prove to be very problematic also due to problems with the specialist staff who will need to be employed for such care.
I would not be afraid that our society will age, because we can see from the examples of other aging societies that we can cope with it. Japan, for example, although it has been in economic stagnation for years, has a well-developed and organized system of care for the elderly. Healthy life expectancy is high there. The question is whether we will be able to deal with this problem well, because it requires developing a consensus across political divisions and long-term solutions.
– sums up prof. Paweł Strzelecki, deputy director of the Institute of Statistics and Demography of the Warsaw School of Economics.
Data source: Central Statistical Office report of November 25, 2024 “Pensions and annuities in 2023”.
Read also other texts about the demography of Poland: 2.1 million workers will disappear. Demographic collapse in the labor market. “Depopulation is accelerating” and: Very gloomy data from the Central Statistical Office. “The state of birth depression”. Another demographic crisis.