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The housing market trembled. “Very high number of bookings”

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Sales of new apartments in the seven largest markets in Poland (Warsaw, Krakow, Wroclaw, Tri-City, Poznan, Lodz and Katowice) in the first quarter of 2023 amounted to 12.1 thousand and was 35 percent higher than in the previous quarter, according to Otodom Analytics data .

“On the seven markets for which Otodom publishes data (in Warsaw, Kraków, Wrocław, Tricity, Poznań, Łódź and Katowice), developers sold a total of 4.8 thousand (in March – ed.) – 10% more than in February and 30% more than in 2008. Added to this is a very high number of reservations, which, if materialized in the form of sales, would bring an additional 3.2 thousand (from March reservations alone). At the end of March, the number of apartments that remained in reservations with developers operating in the 7 largest markets amounted to 7.6 thousand.” – it was written.

– We can confidently say that what we are seeing on the market today is meeting last year’s postponed demand. Buyers who have been frozen by the strict policy of calculating creditworthiness, or refrained from purchasing due to uncertainty regarding the monetary policy of the National Bank of Poland, are now realizing their intentions. Of course, some part is waiting for a (government program – ed.) Secure credit – said Ewa Tęczak, an expert on the Otodom housing market, quoted in the press release.

She added that if we assume that the increase in the total number of bookings between February and March amounted to less than half a thousand, and the number of March bookings exceeded 3,000, it means that definitely more buyers complete their purchases than wait.

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Read also: Developers react to government announcements. “Big interest”

Sales vs. the number of flats introduced to the market

As stated in the release, after three quarters of a clear excess of sales over introductions, the offer returned to the level of May 2022. “Over the last 9 months, only once, in November 2022, new introductions exceeded the number of transactions. in the last three quarters amounted to 8.6 thousand (i.e. 42 percent more apartments were sold than added to the offer) and practically eliminated the June ‘hill’.

– Mass introductions, which are a move ahead of the entry into force of the regulation establishing the Developer Guarantee Fund, may to some extent justify a more cautious approach of developers in launching new investments. The offer in the seven largest markets is still not back to the May 2022 level.not to mention the level at the turn of 2021 and 2022, and yet monthly sales were then at a level similar to the one observed today – said Katarzyna Kuniewicz, market research director of Otodom Analytics, quoted in the press release.

Buyers who are currently looking for an apartment to buy on one of the seven largest markets can choose from 45.6 thousand. offers. In May last year, they had 44.9 thousand. and in January 38.5 thousand. apartments offered by developers.

Developers have the opportunity to increase supply. If we take into account the permits issued since the beginning of 2022, it can be estimated that there are still 16.9 thousand apartments on the shelves that can be added to the offer. This is equivalent to 4 months of sales at the current level. Of course, to this should be added some stock from unrealized permits from previous years. A separate issue is whether these projects are tailored to the current preferences of buyers – added Katarzyna Kuniewicz.

Read also: Recovery on the housing loan market. “We haven’t seen such a large number in 10 months”

There are more and more loan applications

– The number of loan applications submitted in March was the highest since May 2022, and the ratio of average salaries to the average price per square meter was even better in the first quarter of 2023 than in 2021 and 2022 – indicated Ewa Tęczak.

An additional argument for speeding up the purchase can be a slight but steady increase in prices. Changes on a monthly basis seem small, but compared to December 2022, i.e. on a quarterly basis, they are more noticeable and range from 3% to 3%. in the Tri-City, Krakow and Poznań, by 5 percent. in Warsaw, Wrocław and Katowice, as much as 8 percent each. in the boat.

In annual terms, Katowice remains the growth leader, where not only prices soared, significantly exceeding PLN 11,000, but also salaries, the average of which exceeded PLN 10,000. zloty.

Read also: Will housing prices in Poland increase? “The prospect is quite obvious economically”

Main photo source: Shutterstock

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