Let's start with butter to immediately clarify the topic and close it (at least for now). The prices of this product have become a political topic. However, there are few substantive arguments in this discussion, but there are some quite absurd ones. Let's focus here on explaining what it's like with butter.
First: butter
First of all, of course, it is getting more expensive, a lot. According to the latest data from the Central Statistical Office, in November, butter was 20.5 percent. more expensive than last year and by 2.2 percent than in the previous month (October). The Central Statistical Office does not provide price levels in PLN (we wrote about why it does not do so in this text: There is such a thing as “real” inflation and it is calculated by the Central Statistical Office. How does he do it?), but we observe part of the market. Every month for three years, together with the Handelextra.pl portal, we have been preparing a receipt report. For us, CMR tracks the prices of over 30 basic food products that we buy in smaller stores, usually located closer to our homes. The text on this subject will be published at the beginning of the new week, but I can already reveal that the average price of butter from these real receipts in smaller stores was in November PLN 8.92 (we also take into account promotions).
Butter has become much more expensive not only in Poland. It is expensive everywhere in the world. And it is worth remembering that this is a commodity that is traded on markets, just like, for example, orange juice (which is also more expensive). AND why is it more expensive? Milk production in the world has decreased, so there is a lower supply of the raw material (including, for example, in New Zealand, which is a large global exporter). Moreover, during the production of butter, powdered milk is produced, which is cheap, and although the producers profit from the butter, they lose from the powdered milk. It is more profitable for dairy producers to switch to products that offer higher margins and higher profits, such as cheese. In recent months, cheese production has increased and butter production has decreased. And when there was less butter on the market, prices began to rise significantly. As a consolation: experts point out that butter prices on the markets have already stopped, consumer patience is probably reaching the end, so there is a chance that the crazy price increase of this product will stop.
Second: inflation
Well, the Central Statistical Office reported how much the price of butter is rising in the latest report on November inflation, which was released on Friday. This was the second reading of the indicator and was a bit surprising because The Central Statistical Office revised it upwards their original calculations. Inflation therefore it amounted to 4.7 percent year to year, and not 4.6%, as reported two weeks ago (and that's what the second reading is for, the first data are published during the month in question). It's still less than in October (5%), but there's nothing to get used to. Inflation has fallen largely because of base effect on fuel prices – a year ago, fuel prices rose significantly in November, reflecting pre-election reductions at gas stations. According to economists, inflation will end this year at around 5 percent.
What does the data show? Apart from the media butter, we also have high energy pricesgas and other home maintenance services, such as water and sewage. At all services become more expensivevery clearly, e.g. medical, tourist, and also – on a smaller scale, although of greater importance because it is more common – telecommunications. Economists write about tariff increases from major mobile operators. Overall, the increase in service prices increased significantly to 7.2%. year on year from 6.7 percent in October. Commodity prices increased by 3.8%. Labor costs play an important role in services (a strong increase in the minimum wage this year and, in general, a double-digit increase in wages so far).
Third: interest rates
Like inflation, so do interest rates. Everyone cuts and the National Bank of Poland waits. It would seem so, because over the last half-year, 26 out of 38 central banks monitored by the Bank for International Settlements lowered interest rates (I quote these data from Ignacy Morawski, an economist at “Puls Biznesu”). Meanwhile, the National Bank of Poland does not change rates, which is unlikely to please the politicians of the ruling coalition.
There was a lot going on on this topic this week, also in Poland, although there was no decision of the Monetary Policy Council. The conference of the President of the National Bank of Poland after the last meeting of the Monetary Policy Council (last week, December 5) caused a lot of emotions. Adam Glapiński it ruined hopes for a discussion on cutting interest rates next spring. In his opinion, it will not be possible in… Marchand only in October, and the reductions themselves even only in 2026. “The president cited energy prices as an argument. Although the government has already approved their partial freezing for households from January for nine months, but according to Glapiński, “a partial freezing until September is difficult to interpret.” In his opinion, expectations can be reached in June and September next year electricity price increases.
This volte-face caused some confusion, also because other members of the Monetary Policy Council began to comment after the conference. Cezary Kochalski in conversation with Bloomberg stated that rate cuts should still be prudent by the Council and with the first cut in spring. Henryk Wnorowski and Ludwik Kotecki also believe that the discussion about price cuts should start in March. The last of the dovish trio (a dovish attitude in monetary policy translates into a greater tendency to cut interest rates, its opposite is a hawkish attitude) even spoke quite harshly. – President Glapiński broke our gentlemen's agreement to stick to March 2025 as the beginning of the discussion on interest rate cuts. I don't know why he did it, he said in the interview with Mikołaj Fidziński from “Rzeczpospolita”. He did not rule out that the decision on the reduction itself could be made in the fall. He also pointed to the third quarter of next year in an interview with Mikołaj Fidziński Ireneusz Dąbrowski. Przemysław Litwiniuk he focuses on July as the moment of the first cut. Gabriela Masłowska and for the second half of next year or even the beginning of 2026.
There are 10 members of the MPC (including Adam Glapiński), three of them did not comment publicly after the last meeting: Iwona Duda, Wiesław Janczyk and Joanna Tyrowicz. Available statements show that there is some division within the Monetary Policy Council, but it is clear that the general attitude of this group towards cuts has moved to the end of next year. Meanwhile, this week he lowered interest rates National Bank of Switzerland (unexpectedly strongly, by 50 basis points) i European Central Bank (as expected).
Fourth: no more 0% credit.
This is one of the economic topics of this year, strongly related to politics, but also to interest rates. Changes in rates influence changes in installment amounts credits mortgages. Since October last year, the NBP has stuck at 5.75%. Relatively high rates discourage people from taking out mortgage loans. Apartment prices may also discourage you from purchasing real estate. The earlier 2% loan, which expired a year ago, significantly increased these prices.
The new government promised a new program, commonly called 0% loan The idea aroused huge discussions, it was often commented negatively, not all members of the ruling coalition supported it, and yet the Ministry of Development and Technology, or more precisely PSL (because it is this force that controls the ministry), insisted on such a solution until quite recently.
And yet this week the minister Krzysztof Paszyk changed his mind. – There will be no 0% loan. These were slogans and assurances from many months ago. Poland has the highest interest rates on housing loans in the EU. We need to find a solution that will help Poles – Paszyk said on Radio Zet. The government is to prepare some other solution, but nothing is known about it yet, except that it is to be comprehensive. And the fact that there is no consensus in the coalition yet on what it should look like. – In the first quarter of next year I will show not only the program, but we will enter the phase of its legislative process – announced the Minister of Development and Technology. Next year's budget earmarked PLN 4.6 billion for housing. For now, we have replaced one uncertainty (when the 0% Loan program will start) with another one (what to do instead?).
Fifth: TVN
Earlier this week he returned about the sale of TVN by Warner Bros. Discovery. Rumors about the possibility of Americans leaving this investment appeared already this summer – he wrote about it then “Financial Times”. This time a Onet journalist talked about it Andrzej Stankiewicz. In the program “State of Emergency” he statedthat “there are many indications that this transaction has already been agreed.” Two options were supposed to be possible: selling TVN to Renata Kellnerova, the widow of the richest Czech who died a few years ago. The second candidate was supposed to be the Hungarian television channel TV2, associated with Viktor Orban.
On Wednesday prime minister Donald Tusk announced that two large private television stations, TVN and Polsat, will be included in the list of strategic companies. This is to give them protection “for example, against an aggressive and dangerous takeover from the point of view of the interests of the Polish state.” This means that they cannot be sold without the government's consent. The government is to adopt a regulation on this matter in the coming week.
Read also about this in the text: Does the owner not have to sell TVN? “Then the whole transaction would make absolutely no sense”