The Monetary Policy Council's decision on interest rates, the conference of the head of the National Bank of Poland, the reading of the latest PMI index for August – these are the most important economic events of the week that is starting. The annual Economic Forum taking place in Karpacz from Tuesday to Thursday will also attract attention.
Interest rates. The MPC will make a decision
After the summer break, the Monetary Policy Council will announce its decision on Wednesday afternoon. interest rates. The cost of money is widely expected to stabilize, i.e. 5.75 percent in the case of the NBP reference rate. Most market forecasts assume that rate cuts may appear in the second half of 2025 at the earliest.
Right after the non-decisive MPC meeting on 20 August, NBP President A. Glapiński informed PAP Biznes that it cannot be ruled out that the economic situation will develop in such a direction that the discussion on adjusting monetary policy will be justified earlier than in 2026, when it will be certain that inflation will peak and forecasts will show it declining steadily toward the target.
The NBP president's statement has brought data and publications that may support a more hawkish stance of the Monetary Policy Council. The pace of wage growth in the national economy in Q2 was 14.7 percent, higher than in Q1. In turn, detailed data on GDP for Q2 (3.2% y/y) confirmed that economic growth in Poland is based on the strength of domestic demand, especially consumption.
Finally, the draft budget for 2025 presented by the government assumes a clearly expansionary fiscal policy over this horizon.
“We do not bet on another 180-degree pivot by the president and a return to the declaration of no cuts until 2026, but the message may be more nuanced, emphasizing the conditionality of the MPC decision and its dependence on future data and forecasts. This may slightly cool down market expectations regarding the pace of NBP rate cuts,” wrote Santander economists in their weekly announcements.
“Plans to pursue a more expansionary fiscal policy than previously expected may result in a tougher stance of the Monetary Policy Council and potentially delay the commencement of discussions on NBP interest rate cuts. This also means that fiscal consolidation, required by the EU's excessive deficit procedure, will only be achieved after 2025,” PKO BP economists say.
Important data from the Polish industry
On Monday at 9:00 the Polish manufacturing PMI index for August will be released. ING economists expect a renewed decline in activity in the sector.
“We expect the PMI to deteriorate in August, as the external environment for Polish industry remains challenging. Weak performance of European industry, especially the German automotive sector, weighs on domestic conditions in manufacturing. We expect the PMI for manufacturing to fall to 46.5 from 47.2 in July,” ING wrote in its weekly preview.
Economic Forum in Karpacz and work on the budget
From Tuesday to Thursday, the XXXIII Economic Forum will be held in Karpacz, with numerous government representatives and key representatives of Polish business taking part.
On Thursday, at approximately 12:00, BGK will publish the results of the bond sale auction for the Covid-19 Fund.
Work on the state budget for 2025 is starting. On Wednesday, the draft bill on this matter will be consulted for the first time with the social side at a meeting of the Social Dialogue Council. According to the draft adopted by the government, the budget deficit in 2025 will amount to PLN 289 billion. These amounts include the repayment of the PFR debt at the level of PLN 34.7 billion and the Covid-19 Fund at the level of PLN 28.5 billion.
Among the company results, the quarterly reports of InPost, Atal, Unibep, and Amrest will draw attention.
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