Year-on-year, Poland's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 3.2 percent – GUS gave a quick estimate. This is significantly above forecasts. Experts are surprised, because on average they had assumed 2.8 percent growth, while forecasts ranged from 2.2 to 3.2 percent.
Poland's GDP up. Prime Minister Tusk: We're beating the Germans hands down
“Everyone is surprised by the growth Polish economy in the second quarter of this year. It was supposed to be 2.7, but it is 3.2. We are better than all the large EU countries, and we beat the Germans hands down,” he commented on the X platform prime minister Donald Tusk.
Let us recall that Germany's GDP shrank by 0.1 percent in the second quarter of this year. Klaus Wohlrabe of the Institute for Economic Research assessed that the German economy is “stuck in crisis” and that no significant improvement should be expected in the third quarter. In contrast, the Polish economy is now growing at its fastest rate since the third quarter of 2022, when it was rapidly recovering from the pandemic slump. In quarter-on-quarter terms, it grew by 1.5 percent.
“A big surprise, on the upper band of historical errors” – mBank economists wrote in a commentary on X. According to them, the Polish economy will grow by 3.5% this year, which would mean further acceleration in the following quarters. “We have it! Poland with the highest economic growth in the entire European Union” – we read on the macroNEXT profile.
Inflation is up. It hasn't been this high this year yet.
On Wednesday, the Central Statistical Office also confirmed its quick reading on inflation in Poland. And here, things are not so good. Inflation this year it hasn't been that high yet. Growth price consumer goods and services in July 2024 accelerated to 4.2% year-on-year. However, inflation data should be considered together with the above GDP data. Such results may indicate to the Monetary Policy Council that it is not necessary to stimulate the economy by cutting interest rates.