The Taliban will try to find some solution to create a system that is more or less acceptable to all. It will, of course, be far from our ideas about the modern state – said Patryk Kugiel from the Polish Institute of International Affairs on TVN24. In his opinion, a large proportion of Afghans will try to find themselves in the new reality.
On August 15, the Taliban seized power over Afghanistan with Kabul. Since then, chaos has raged at the airport in the Afghan capital. Thousands of people who want to leave the country flock to and around the airport. The US military is responsible for air traffic control there and is responsible for security.
According to the expert of the Polish Institute of International Affairs, up to several million people may want to leave Afghanistan, although – as he noted – it is still a minority of the country’s population. – It is also a whole generation that has already lived in free Afghanistan. These people may want to leave not only because they fear for their lives, but they just have a taste of some democracy and freedom. They do not want to live in an unstable or strict system imposed by the Taliban, said the TVN24 guest.
He noted that most people in Afghanistan live in the provinces. – Some of them probably accept the Taliban rule, if they bring peace to you. It is not that all of Afghanistan would like to leave, Kugiel pointed out.
Kugiel: Afghan evacuation does not suit the Taliban
As the expert explained, Afghan emigration is not useful to the Taliban for many reasons, including in the context of state reconstruction.
– They need people who ruled and administered the country in recent years and somehow developed the economy. The Taliban has been mostly a warrior for the past 20 years. Their experience in managing the country is still very limited, they need these people to be able to establish their rule – he argued. He added that therefore they would hinder the evacuation.
In his opinion, “it is in the interest of the West that all people who fear for their lives and have cooperated in the past with the government in Kabul or international troops should have the opportunity to leave.” “We owe it to the Afghans,” Kugiel announced.
At the moment, he indicated, the Taliban controls all border crossings and most of Afghanistan’s territory, except for the Panjsher Valley. – They will decide who is to leave the country – said the expert. As he added, “the good news is that, at least for the moment, the civil war in Afghanistan is over.” – About 20 people were killed in Afghanistan last week. These are the smallest losses to people in many decades – he noted.
In his opinion, the situation in Afghanistan “will encourage the majority of the population to accept new governments.” – They will rather try to find themselves in this new reality. If the Taliban do not open the borders and hostilities do not resume, these people will probably not flee abroad – predicted Kugiel.
What will the Taliban rule be like?
When asked what the new Taliban rule might look like, he replied: “We can expect the worst, that is, a return to the rule of the 1990s. He said, however, that he was” more optimistic “on this matter. – The Taliban is not an invading force, they are Afghans who have a very radical vision of their country, but they want to rule this country. In order to rule this country, they will have to somehow win over this population, he noted.
He believes that “the Taliban will be willing to compromise, however.” – The whole country is tired of the 40-year civil war, they want to rule, they want international recognition. Afghanistan is too complex a patchwork of different tribal and ethnic groups to rule through terror alone. There, some form of admitting minority representatives to power and some guarantees for these groups are in the interest of the Taliban, Kugiel acknowledged.
According to him, “they will try to find some solution to create a system that is more or less acceptable to all.” – Of course, it will be far from our ideas about the modern state, it will be far from the ideas of many Afghans. For many Afghans, freedom may be the price of peace, said Kugiel.
Main photo source: PAP / EPA / STRINGER