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The war in Ukraine, the social mood of the Russians. Anna Maria Dyner and Piotr Łukasiewicz comment

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Experts from “Fakty po Faktach” discussed the economic and social moods after ten months of the armed Russian invasion of Ukraine. – This war will be won by military means, not economic ones – assessed the former Polish ambassador to Afghanistan, Dr. Piotr Łukasiewicz. Anna Maria Dyner, an analyst at the Polish Institute of International Affairs, said that “however spooky it may sound”, for many Russians the war is “an element of economic advancement”.

About the economic situation Ukraine and Russia, the guests of the Tuesday edition of “Fakty po Faktach” on TVN24 were asked – Anna Maria Dyner, an analyst for Belarus and security policy of the Russian Federation from the Polish Institute of International Affairs, and a reserve colonel, Doctor Piotr Łukasiewicz, former Polish ambassador to Afghanistan.

“This war will be won by military means, not economic means”

Dyner said that “you can definitely see that if any economy is bleeding out, it’s the Ukrainian one.” – Official Russian data speak of a decline in GDP of several percent. The fact is that Russia it has powerful resources and has the ability to put the economy into military mode. Secondly, it is not internationally isolated, because there is, for example, cooperation with China and most third world countries, i.e. not the Euro-Atlantic world. It is also necessary to add how Russia circumvents the sanctions. Here, even countries such as Belarus come to the rescue, which have the ability to help the Russian economy – she enumerated.

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Łukasiewicz replied that “this war will be won by military means, not economic ones.” – Here I would see hope for a possible, some expected, victorious end to this conflict to the detriment of Russia. Economics is an added bonus here. Probably falling oil prices will not help in tightening the Russian budget, (…) we know these ailments, but they are still ailments. The sooner the Ukrainians receive equipment, including heavy equipment, planes and tanks, the faster this war will favor the Ukrainian side, he said.

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Dyner: Russia has powerful resources, it has the ability to put the economy into military mode

The mood of the “coming apocalypse” in Russia

The discussion touched on the subject of Russian moods towards nearly a year of war. Dyner noted that “as spooky as it may sound, for many it is an element of economic advancement.” – We are not talking about big cities here, but about the Russian province, when it turns out that there is a possibility to pay off the mortgage, if someone goes to fight, that there are compensations for death or injuries, that there is a higher salary. These are the elements that are tempting. We don’t think so, but it’s true. It’s a very simple mechanism that works.

The second thing, she said, is “incredibly rampant propaganda” and “the glorification of heroism in Russia.” – If now Vladimir PutinFor example, in the New Year’s message, he compares those Russians who are now dying in Ukraine with the heroes of the Great Patriotic War, this has a propaganda effect on the Russians, she said.

In this context, Łukasiewicz noted that in recent weeks “in Russia, apocalyptic moods, the cult of death, the cult of mothers who are to give birth to future ‘heroes’ who will die for their homeland” have become active. “Putin’s talk about how unimportant life is is not so much patriotic as the approaching apocalypse,” he concluded.


Main photo source: PAP/EPA/SERGEI ILNITSKY

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