“This attack will happen. What will it be like? Nobody knows”

Israel prepares for expected attacks Iran and Hezbollah. The Shin Bet internal security service has prepared a command bunker in Jerusalem that can withstand major attacks, where senior leaders could stay for extended periods in the event of war, the Israeli news portal Walla reported Sunday. Earlier, it reported that government members and senior officials had been given satellite phones in case land and mobile networks were destroyed.

The military command responsible for civil defense also completed tests of a new alarm system for the population, which sends text messages with warnings to all mobile phone owners in a given area. The system will help in emergency situations, such as a rocket attack on Israel, the command noted. In addition, Israel operates a system of alarm sirens, in the event of a threat, warnings are also visible in the civil defense application and broadcast in the media.

Minister of Transport Miri Regev ordered the organization of cruises Cyprusto help Israelis stranded abroad after many airlines canceled flights to and from Tel Aviv, Channel 12 television reported. Israelis who want to return to the country are also being brought back on military transport planes. Authorities recommend that citizens in such a situation go to Greece and to Cyprus, from where transport to Israel will be organized.

Dr. Maciej Kozłowski, former Polish ambassador to Israel (Collegium Civitas), referring to the matter on Sunday in “Fakty po Faktach”, said that the fact that retaliation “has to happen seems a foregone conclusion, because the whole logic of this conflict in the Middle East has been that the lack of retaliation is treated as weakness and an incentive to escalate actions.”

– There will definitely be retaliation, and for public opinion in Iran it is necessary – he assessed. As he said, “the attack took place on Iranian territory, which was a kind of violation of such an unwritten agreement”. – So this attack will take place. What will it be like? Nobody knows. Probably all the information we are receiving now is rather smokescreens. In times of war, as we know, disinformation is also a weapon – he said.

Kozłowski said that the fact that the Israelis have turned off the GPS signal in a large part of Israel also means that they are preparing for a possible air attack, such as the one that took place on April 13. “But will such an attack take place? It is very difficult to say,” he noted.

He assessed that retaliation was “symbolic.” “I'm afraid this retaliation will be more serious,” he said.

– It's hard to say whether it will be more serious in terms of a large number of victims, but it will be more serious. Perhaps (it will be – ed.) an attack on some Israeli figure, maybe an attack on some Israeli facility abroad. I think it will be more of that type of character than a massive air attack on Israeli territory, because Israel is very well defended by anti-aircraft defense – assessed the former Polish ambassador to Israel.

– When it comes to escalation scenarios, Iran faces a fundamental difficulty, which is connected with the aforementioned efficient anti-aircraft and anti-missile defense of Israel, multi-layered. It is not only the Iron Dome, but also other systems that can be broken. But to break them, a massive attack is needed, i.e. a saturation attack – explained doctor habilitated Łukasz Fyderek from the Institute of the Middle and Far East of the Jagiellonian University. He emphasized that “this is a scenario that leads to very rapid escalation”.

– Not to a spiral of escalation, but to a rollercoaster of escalation (…). To effectively defeat Israeli anti-access systems, one needs to fire a hundred missiles, preferably from multiple directions, i.e. from Iran as well as from Yemenas well as Lebanoni.e. from various allies connected or referred to by Iran as the axis of resistance – he explained.

As he said, in such a situation “90 percent of the missiles will be intercepted, but the 10 percent that hit will inflict losses that will be symbolic from Israel's perspective.”

– However, the very fact that the attack will be massive may trigger a counteraction from Israel, and in a special case, if it is truly massive, not only from Israel, but also from its American ally – Fyderek noted.

– And here, from this asymmetry of escalation possibilities, the risks of this conflict arise. On the one hand, we have Iranian signals that deterrence should be restored. Because when we talk about retaliation, there is a certain element, a psychological component, but it is also a very rational component. Retaliation is carried out in order to restore deterrence, to deter the opponent from repeating another attack on our territory. And here there are difficulties and risks that this escalation, which both sides plan as calculated, will at some point get out of control of each side and there will be such an exponential increase in violence – he said.

When asked who is currently taking various actions to prevent this conflict from escalating, Kozłowski emphasized that it is definitely the Americans.

– In this context, today's visit of the Minister of Foreign Affairs is very interesting. Jordan in Tehran. This has never happened before. One can speculate whether this is an attempt by Iran to warn of an attack or, on the contrary, this minister is going on a kind of peace mission, prompted by the Americans. We do not know that – he said. He noted that “diplomacy is certainly working at full speed at the moment”. – After all, certain channels of communication between the United States and Iran do exist – he added.

– At this point, the decision will definitely be made in Tehran. Israel can only react. Israel is preparing, but the decision will be made in Tehran – said the former Polish ambassador to Israel.

The situation in the Middle East is the most tense in months and threatens to further escalate the conflict between Israel and Iran and its allies, the Palestinian Hamas, the Lebanese Hezbollah and the Yemeni the Houthi movement.

After the recent Israeli attack on Beirut and the one attributed to it attack in Tehranwhere senior Hamas and Hezbollah leaders were killed, Iran and its allies vowed revenge.

USA announced that they would help Israel repel a potential attack and are strengthening their forces in the Middle East, but fears are growing that the spiral of attacks could lead to a full-blown war. The president Joe Biden and American diplomacy emphasize the need to reduce tensions.