This is this year's summer. IMGW long -term forecast

As he says IMGWthroughout Poland, the average monthly air temperature in April will probably be shaped Above the long-term standard from 1991-2020. In turn, the monthly sum of precipitation in the majority of the country will most likely be included in the long -term standard. In the northwest and west of the country, there may be more rainfall than the norm.

Also May is to be warmer than usual. According to higher temperature forecasts, there are to be accompanied by rainfall within the multi -year standard.

The Institute of Meteorology and Water Management forecasts that in June the average monthly air temperature, throughout the country will most likely be Above the long-term standard from 1991-2020. In turn, the monthly sum of precipitation should be within the multi -year standard.

It is similar in July. In the whole country, the air temperature will most likely be higher than usual. The monthly sum of precipitation should be within the multi -year standard.

In IMGW-PIB and in other meteorological centers around the world, the average monthly temperature or sum of rainfall for a given month is forecast in relation to the so-called norm of many years. Currently, values ​​from 1991-2020 are used as a reference.

The value of the average monthly temperature or the monthly sum of rainfall from this period is sorted from the lowest to the highest. The 10 lowest values ​​determine the temperature or rainfall in the class “below normal”, 10 middle “normal”, and 10 highest – “above normal”.

In the case of the “above normal” class, we can assume that the month will be warmer or more wet than at least several dozen of the same months watched in 1991-2020. In the case of determination “below norm” the month will be cooler or dry, while “normal”, which is similar to the average 10 months from the comparative period.

IMGW experts indicated that the forecast average temperature refers to the average temperature of the whole month, listed both during the day and at night. The forecast rainfall refers to the sum of rainfall from all days a month. The forecasts are not determined by the type of precipitation (snow or rain, etc.).

IMGW explains that despite the growing computing power of supercomputers and extensive knowledge about weather processes, it is still impossible to avoid errors and differences in forecasts for such a long period in the future. Disgusions result from both the risk of sudden, often local phenomena that can disturb the forecast weather processes, such as the variety of physical assumptions used in the prognostic models, as well as mathematical and statistical equations.

Meteorologists remind you that the predicted weather cannot be described so much in advance. It should be remembered that the above forecast is approximate and its character is experimental and that it concerns the average mileage for the entire forecast region and a given prognostic period.