On Tuesday, March 4, the United States introduced 25 % duties on Canada and Mexico. Donald Trump also signed another 10 % duties on China, adding them to 10 percent. applied a month ago. Canada and China have already responded with retaliation, Mexico also announced actions. Interestingly, China decided to aim the duties into specific products, primarily agricultural, and the cars omitted, for example. – In Chinese duties, no products that hurt Americans were not included – says for Next.gazeta.pl an analyst at the Xelion investment house, Piotr Kuczyński.
Analysts questioned by Reuters They point out that China responded gently, imposing sanctions only to some products, while the American duties concern all products from China. This shows that the Chinese government wants to reduce tension, not escalate the conflict. “It must be honestly said that we are in the early stage of the trade war 2.0. There is still time and place to avoid its extension and consolidation, if Trump and XI Jinping manage to conclude a contract” – say Chinese analysts of the agricultural sector from Trivium.
“The stupidest trade war” began. Americans can only lose it
At the beginning of February, “Wall Street Journal” wrote that Trump had unleashed “the stupidest trade war in history.” A month later, Piotr Kuczyński consists of this statement. And as he explains, duties will undoubtedly raise inflation in the USA. However, according to reports – calculates the expert – the average American family will lose about 1.2 thousand in existing movements. dollars annually. – Not much, because it is $ 100 a month, and the pre -election reports of economists spoke up to 8,000. dollars a year – says Kuczyński.
It is worth remembering that, contrary to the narrative of Trump and his advisers, it is not the issues of “Woke” or migration that the presidential chair provided him. Inflation turned out to be the most significant topic. If this one increases, support for Trump, which is already falling anywaycan decrease even more. Especially that growth slowdown prices It was one of the most important promises of the US President. However, this is a complicated topic, because although Joe Biden He fought effectively with the effects inflation, that Americans rated him raw in this matterfor which he paid a lack of re -election.
Piotr Kuczyński recalls here the head of the Fed, Jerome Powell, who repeatedly said that so many mechanisms affect inflation that it is extremely difficult to assess what effect they will have. For now, their effects are obscured by fog and you have to wait to see how the market will react.
One thing, however, is certain: the cost of an average American family life will increase, inflation will be higher for her
– says Kuczyński.
Farmers will hit the duties. This is another blow that he measured the White House in them
Customs will certainly also hit American farmers. Donald Trump is aware of this and has already published on Truth Social Appeal, in which he reassured them that in the long run they would gain on this movement. The US president also told farmers to prepare for the production of a large number of agricultural products sold internally.
The problem is that American farmers have a huge agricultural surplus. – I am afraid that there may be a problem with absorbing all its agricultural production by the US – says Kuczyński. In his opinion, such powerful duties will cause an extremely large limitation of the demand for American food, and farmers will not reward this defect. “There is nothing to dream about it,” says the expert.
In addition, the dismantling of USAID, an American international development agency, strikes farmers. Through it, the Americans provided help around the world, including food. USAID activity was therefore a huge support for demand for American agricultural products. She was because Elon Musk closed the agency.
The future is enveloped in the fog of a madman
What will happen, what to expect from the introduction of duties and starting a trade war? – We don't know. This is fogin which we live. We do not know what will come out of it and we do not know what to expect, because Donald Trump conducts the policy of a madman – says Kuczyński. As he explains, Trump's actions are also described in this way by political scientists who want to show that Trump intentionally works chaotically so that nobody knows what his next movement will be. In fact, the US president can do anything, he can cancel all his decisions every day. – And this means that the rest of the world like this rabbit in a car spotlight lights is waiting for a blow – says Kuczyński.
Donald Trump prepared for the variable nature prime minister Canada Justin Trudeau, which introduced duties in the amount of 25 percent. for imports worth $ 30 billion in Canadian dollars (20.7 billion USD) and announced another on USD 125 billion (USD 86.2 billion) if Trump's duties will continue to apply for 21 days. Nevertheless, the trade war seems inevitable – says Kuczyński. Trump denied the duties, he is in love with them. He recently said that “duty” is the fourth most beautiful word in the dictionary, to “God”, “love” and “religion”.
He is in love with this duties policy. I compare him in this matter to Erdogan, the president of Turkey, who in recent years preached the thesis that higher interest rates stimulate inflation. He had his own theory, completely incompatible with all economic theories
– believes Kuczyński.
According to the expert, if these horrendous duties persist, it should be expected that the international trade trade will slow down. This will also mean that many countries, especially from the Pacific region, will begin to turn to China. – As for this, Trump was about to achieve his goal perfectly – Ironizes Kuczyński and emphasizes that Donald Trump would not like to achieve. He adds, however, that if China plays this situation well, then the policy will also be reoried, and Trump makes it significantly easily.
The European Union can only sit and wait. Trump announced that he would impose a 25 % duties on the community, but he still did not. – Thursday and the extraordinary peak of the European Union on Ukraine can be crucial. Trump stopped help for Ukraine, wanting to force Ukraine. We'll see what the Union will do with it. If he puts a lot, in my opinion Trump will immediately impose duties on the EU, because it will make it difficult for him to conclude a suspension of weapons in Ukraine – says Piotr Kuczyński.
Trump is preparing a Wall Street crash. He can be stopped by oligarchy colleagues
If Trump does not change the law, in four years he will no longer be in the White House. This is not so certain, however, because the US President He has repeatedly broken about the third term. And although this is incompatible with the American constitution, Trump already introduces such changes (bypassing the land law recorded in it). So the question arises whether the changes in commercial relations will be permanent, or maybe in a few years we will have another reshuffle and return to the USA? – Today it cannot be decided – says Kuczyński. And when asked what markets expect, he points out that investors have the memory of aquarium fish and for them only fast profit counts in a few months, not years. So what can markets win on the current situation?
This is an interesting question, because Trump was definitely not about calling Wall Street crash, and for now everything is going to it
– says Kuczyński. If the indexes start to fall violently – below 10 percent. From the peaks, which is considered a classic correction – our interlocutor expects pressure on Trump from his oligarchs colleagues. Then Trump's policy could change strongly. – We can only keep our fingers crossed for funds to shake the market tightly. However, this would be contrary to their current interests, so we just have to look and wait. Unfortunately – summed up Piotr Kuczyński, an analyst of the Xelion investment house.