Trump, Putin and Carrot. Analysts about the conversation of leaders

Vladimir Putin took advantage of the fact that Donald Trump needs immediate results. Fighting in Ukraine will last – the former NATO official Jamie Shea assessed Tuesday's conversation. Atlantic Council analyst Andrew D'Oneri believes that Trump has not obtained virtually any concessions from Putin. An expert in research on peace and conflicts Katarzyna Anna Przybyła valued that Putin's conversation with Trump did not bring the peace to peace between Russia and Ukraine. OSW director Wojciech Konończuk assessed that the Russians “lured Trump”.

Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin carried out on Tuesday telephone conversationin which, among others, they agreed that actions for peace in Ukraine They will start with a suspension of weapons regarding energy and infrastructure. Negotiations are also to be undertaken about the truce in the Black Sea. The Kremlin announced that Putin agreed to stop the fire of Ukrainian energy infrastructure for 30 days and has already issued the proper order of the Russian army. At the same time, he demanded complete suspension of Western military assistance for Ukraine.

Trump-Putin's conversation “was not a success”

There was a high -ranking NATO official Dr. Jamie Shea believes that Tuesday's conversation was not a success of Trump. – He pressed for 30 days of total and unconditional truce, claiming that he was making great progress for this purpose. Instead, Putin only agreed to the absolute minimum: suspension of weapons regarding attacks on energy infrastructure, many of which Russia She has already destroyed, ”Shea said.

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In his opinion, fights in Ukraine will last because the Russian authorities are convinced that they have an advantage at the moment. In addition, Putin makes a full suspension of weapons dependent on meeting more and more conditions, including suspending military and intelligence aid for Ukraine and the mobilization of soldiers in this country.

“Trump now knows that there is no power to end the war (…) But, like Trump, he will try to introduce it in a positive light,” Shea said.

According to the former NATO official, the authorities in Kiev gained because they repaired their relations with Washington and agreed to a 30-day unconditional suspension of weapons. However, if Putin actually suspends the attacks on energy infrastructure, this can allow Ukraine to repair part of the electrical network.

A request for additional concessions from Ukraine

It is disturbing for Kiev, however, that Trump, trying in a hurry to include a real suspension of weapons, will demand additional concessions from Ukraine, such as interruption of mobilization or suspending foreign help. Kiev will be disappointed that Trump is not able to get more concessions from Putin, as he promised – believes Shea.

In his opinion, Trump will argue that Putin has agreed to stop shooting at least one type of goals, and this partial suspension of weapons is the beginning of the peace process. – But if Russia continues to bomabrińskie cities and kill civilians, it will look like a pyrrhic victory – said a former NATO official.

– giving a minimum, Putin avoided Trump's humiliation and maintained his involvement in peace conversations, even if they do not lead quickly. But Trump will have to face big problems. How to make Putin agree to a real, full suspension of weapons without completely selling Ukraine? How to get a pressure lever to Putin to force him to abandon an increasingly maximalist position? How to continue to normalize relationships with Moscow if Putin remains completely inelastic and reluctant to cooperate on Ukraine? Shea asked.

“The real question is whether Trump will be able to deal with these problems and achieve a fair and lasting peace,” the expert points out. – But unfortunately the first round was for Putin, who used Trump's need to achieve immediate results – he concluded.

One positive aspect

The Think Tank Atlantic Council analyst Andrew D'ameri believes that Donald Trump has not obtained virtually any concessions from Vladimir Putin, but it is positive that he did not agree to the “maximalistic demands” of Russia's leader, such as demilitarization of Ukraine, suspension of military and intelligence assistance and the abolition of sanctions against Moscow.

According to the expert, with the current administration policy USA This should be considered a positive aspect of this conversation.

– Unfortunately, this is the approach of the White House to Russia's war against Ukraine. The White House and Trump personally made so many unilateral concessions to Russia, not to receive anything in return that most people who care about the national security of the US, felt a slight relief that he did not give up the Russian side even more – said the expert.

D'Oneri expressed the hope that in the future Trump would make concessions on the part of the Russians, because “so far he had practically nothing but partial suspension of weapons.”

Trump, Putin and Carrot

Wojciech Konończuk, director of the Eastern Studies Center, and earlier an analyst for Russia's foreign and energy policy in the Russian team OSW believes that Trump's negotiations with Putin “bode long conversations”. The expert assessed that the Russian price for peace in Ukraine are “far -reaching concessions to Russia”.

As Konończuk analyzes, the Russians “lure Trump and want to get him further negotiations, allegedly declaring a constructive attitude towards the solving of the Iranian problem and the situation in the Middle East.” He estimated that “Russia is trying to prove to the United States that it is an indispensable partner in the solving of the Iranian nuclear program.”

The expert drew attention to the “benefits of economic cooperation with the US promised by Russia after a future agreement around Ukraine”. “This is a carrot, which the Russians, not for the first time, wave Trump in front of the nose,” he noted. He clarified that “Putin shows the potential of favorable, but also negative cooperation in the event that American-Russian conversations did not lead to anything.”

Konończuk emphasized that in negotiations Russia does not withdraw its main points and “there is no concessions.” The fact that Russia – he explained – wants complete suspension of not only American, but Western military and intelligence assistance for Ukraine, “shows Putin's maximalist goals.

The OSW director assessed that Putin's declaration on the suspension of the shelling of Ukrainian energy infrastructure for 30 days is to show the Russian “allegedly good will”. – It is to show that it is not that Russia says “no” for everything that Trump proposes – he noted in the context of Trump's proposal regarding a 30 -day overall fire suspension.

According to Konończuk, the duration of talks – over 1.5 hours – indicates that the Russians are doing everything to preserve the open communication channel directly with President Trump. He added that the Russians at the same time tell Trump “in the possible possible way that everything that Russia can agree to will have its price and this price goes beyond Ukrainian issues.”

The fact that Trump agreed to talk with Russia without Ukraine is the fulfillment of Russian dreams – said Konończuk. He emphasized that the Russian conditions of the end of the war are “unacceptable to Ukrainians and it is difficult to imagine that they would be a whole to accept by Trump.” – It seems to me that at this stage both parties are very distant from the agreement, if it ever happens at all – he noted.

Konończuk added that “further negotiations will last a long time and will be difficult, because Russia will play on time, because President Trump is in a hurry.” He pointed out, however, that the Russian army would still try to move forward, knowing that there will be less and less military equipment in Ukraine. He explained that “Russia is counting on prolonged negotiations, which will also improve the Russian position on the front, and thus strengthen Russia's negotiating position.”

Anna Przybyła: The conversation did not bring to the room

According to an expert dealing with research on peace and international conflicts, lecturer Collegium Civitas Katarzyna Anna Przybyła, there are at least two large problems related to the talks of the President of the US and Russia.

– First of all, it is a conversation between a person with a dubious moral compass who does not respect the law and institutions, with a person with a dubious moral compass who does not respect the law and institution. So if we wonder if such conversations increase our safety and bring closer to the room, then the answer is: no – she pointed out.

According to Przybyła, the second problem is associated with the room. – A room within the meaning of Trump and Putin's presidents is not a room we should care about. Room is not a cessation of fighting at all costs (…). What we should strive for is a positive room, i.e. not only the lack of an open armed conflict, but also a situation in which we are not afraid that someone will attack us again, in which the torturer recognizes his guilt towards the victim and at whom we attempt to devote justice – the expert explained.

Normal part of mediation

According to the expert, whether in the long run the decision about the temporary cessation of attacks is beneficial for the matter, depends on the intentions of the parties: is it actually about showing good will and it's time to determine the next steps, whether it is a propaganda procedure, playing on time or giving yourself a chance to increase the advantage.

– If we talk about Putin's Russia, the latter option seems more likely, especially since how report representatives of Ukraine On X, after the conversation Trump -Putin there was a Russian attack on energy infrastructure in Ukraine – she noted Przybyła.

When asked if Putin's conversation with Trump means the transition to deciding about Ukraine without Ukraine, she arrived that there was nothing wrong with talking to only one side of the conflict without the participation of the second, and later with the other without the first participation. – This is a normal part of mediation. The problem is when the mediator gets along with one side behind the other or he only cares about the result regardless of the costs – the expert indicates.

To sum up the image effects of the conversation, the arrived pointed out that Trump He already presents her as his success. – I think that Europe and countries like Canadathey will be more critical in the assessment – he said. – However, for the Russian president, who is a war criminal, talks with the American president is a great opportunity, not only in the context of the conflict with Ukraine. It is also a chance to break unity and weaken the broadly understood West, hence Putin's conditions regarding the suspension of weapons – she added.

Russian attack shortly after Trump's conversation with Putin

According to the White House message, the leaders agreed that “the movement towards the room would start” with “technical negotiations on the introduction of a sea suspension of weapons in the Black Sea, full suspension of weapons and lasting peace.” It has been added that negotiations will start immediately in the Middle East. According to Konończuk, Saudi Arabia may be a place of talks or Türkiye.

The correspondents of the Western media reported on Tuesday's evening about anti -aircraft alarm, explosions, sirens and anti -aircraft defense activities in Kiev and other cities of Ukraine. Russia sent rockets to its neighbor shortly after the conversation Vladimir Putin -Donald Trump, in which the Russian dictator – aggressor in this war – assured that he cares about peace.