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Ukraine. Destruction of the dam in Nowa Kachówka. OSW analysis

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The artificially caused flooding after the dam in Nowa Kakhovka was blown up may delay the Ukrainians taking over the initiative in this section of the front. At the same time, it will destroy the Russian fortification lines built in recent months and create a problem with drinking water supplies to towns located in areas controlled by both Ukrainians and Russians, including the occupied peninsula, experts from the Center for Eastern Studies wrote in the analysis.

Ukrainians in the morning informed about the Russians blowing up the dam in Nowa Kakhovka. The crossing over the Dnieper River and part of the Kakhovskaya Hydroelectric Power Plant were destroyed, which led to uncontrolled outflow of water from the Kakhovsky Reservoir and flooding of the towns downstream on both banks, including parts of Kherson.

What is the importance of the dam in Nowa Kachówka? >>>

Water flows through the destroyed dam in Nowa Kachówkatwitter.com/ZelenskyyUa

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In the analysis of the specialists of the Center for Eastern Studies – Andrzej Wilk, Piotr Żochowski and Jakub Ber – we read that “the Russians had been counting on the possibility of an enemy landing through the Dnieper near Kherson and Nowa Kakhovka for a long time.”

“The artificial flood may delay the Ukrainians taking the initiative in this section of the front. At the same time, it will destroy the Russian fortification lines built in recent months and create a problem with the supply of drinking water to towns located in areas controlled by both Ukrainians and Russians, including the occupied peninsula,” OSW analysts write.

The dam in Nowa KachówkaGOOGLE MAPS

Experts point out that Kiev denies reports of fighting in the southern section of the front, but the nature of the actions taken and the means used indicate that on June 4, Ukrainian forces launched an operation to break Russian positions in the direction of Mariupol.

“The importance of the fighting that has begun is evidenced not only by the scale of the forces and resources involved on the Ukrainian side (especially the use of brigades that have been prepared for many months, trained and equipped in the West for a future counter-offensive), but also by the activation of the Donetsk region in the north-east,” the analysis emphasized. .

The dam in Nowa KachówkaPhoto from June 5, 2023MAXAR/Reuters

What about the Ukrainian counter-offensive

OSW analysts emphasize that the Ukrainian command does not admit to launching offensive operations at the junction of the Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia oblasts, and describes the reports, especially from the Russian Defense Ministry, about the launch of a counter-offensive as intentional disinformation.

At the same time, they point out that Ukrainian local sources, including military sources, boast of their successes, inform about the fighting.

“In the attacks in the area of ​​Velyka Novosiłki, the Ukrainians were to engage battalion-level units, including those forming part of the Western-prepared and equipped brigades remaining in reserve so far. For the first time, the use of heavy weapons acquired in recent months, including Leopard 2 tanks, has been confirmed. Contrary to the situation in the south, kept secret by Kiev, Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Malar and the commander of the Land Forces, General Oleksandr Syrskyi, publicized the transition to offensive operations in the Bakhmut region, informing about the success achieved there, experts describe.

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Destroyed dam in Nowa KachówkaPLANET LABS PBC/Reuters

In their opinion, Kiev’s continued embargo on reports of fighting in the south allows the Ukrainian side to freely shape the information message.

“If the undertaken attacks lead to the breaking of Russian positions and the development of success towards the towns on the Sea of ​​\u200b\u200bAzov, Kiev will be able to officially confirm the launch of the counter-offensive,” the analysts write.

Main photo source: PLANET LABS PBC/Reuters





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